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Super El Niño Could Cause 15,800 Additional Indian Heat Deaths
A weather event called El Niño is making many places unusually warm.
Scientists expect this extra heat to cause more deaths in India.
They estimate that about 15,800 more people than usual could die from heat between September 2026 and February 2027.
Southern India may be especially affected because its normal winter temperatures are already warm.
Northern India usually has cooler winters, so the increase may be smaller there during winter.
The scientists say heat-related deaths in India could keep increasing after February as summer arrives.
Their worldwide estimate is about 451,000 additional deaths during the current El Niño episode.
Governments may be able to save lives by issuing early warnings, opening cooling centres and protecting outdoor workers.
India could record roughly 15,800 additional heat-related deaths from September 2026 through February 2027 compared with a normal year.
The Climate Impact Lab projects global land temperatures to reach 1.2°C above normal, with 44% more extremely hot days than expected.
Worldwide, the current El Niño episode is estimated to cause 451,000 excess deaths, including 239,000 during the six-month forecast period.
India is projected to rank fourth globally for additional heat deaths, behind Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan.
Researchers say India’s heat mortality could continue rising into summer, while governments can respond through warnings, cooling centres, hydration stations and worker protections.
- Who
- People in India and other heat-exposed populations, with projections produced by researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
- What
- A report projects roughly 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India during the forecast period and 451,000 globally during the current El Niño episode.
- Where
- India is expected to be among the countries most affected globally, with southern India particularly exposed during the forecast period.
- When
- The India forecast covers September 2026 through February 2027; about 7,400 Indian deaths are projected between December 2026 and February 2027.
- Why
- A Super El Niño is expected to raise temperatures, suppress the Indian monsoon and produce more extremely hot days, increasing heat-related mortality.
Key facts
- Projected Indian excess deaths
- Roughly 15,800 from September 2026 through February 2027
- Indian deaths, December-February
- About 7,400 projected additional heat-related deaths
- Projected global excess deaths
- 451,000 during the current El Niño episode
- Global forecast-period deaths
- 239,000 between September 2026 and February 2027
- Expected global land warming
- 1.2°C above normal
- Increase in extremely hot days
- 44% more than in a normal year
- India’s global ranking
- Fourth for projected heat deaths, behind Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan
Quotes
Michael Greenstone
Co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab
“We have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now we can predict their impact on the worst outcome—death. This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months.”
businesstoday.in
Emily Grover-Kopec
Co-author of the report and director of Rhodium Group’s climate and energy practice
“Northern India’s winters are normally cold enough that heat rarely drives deaths there – so a warmer-than-usual winter won’t move the numbers much, “Southern India is different. Normal winter temperatures there stay warm enough to cause heat deaths on their own, so abnormal warmth layered on top pushes deaths up sharply. That’s part of why India ranks 4th globally for projected heat deaths this winter, even as the sharper regional increases sit further south,” “Beyond the six-month forecast窗口, “”
indianexpress.com
Sources
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