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'Supersized' El Niño Could Become Strongest Ever, WMO Says
El Niño is a natural change that makes parts of the Pacific Ocean unusually warm.
It happens when trade winds weaken.
This warmth can change rain and temperature patterns around the world.
It can bring heavy rain, droughts and typhoons.
Scientists say this El Niño may become the strongest ever measured.
They expect it to continue until at least February 2027.
It is likely to reach its peak near the end of this year.
The WMO says the event could help make 2027 the hottest year ever recorded.
Officials are preparing warnings and plans to help countries protect food, water and other important resources.
The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño could intensify into 2027 and become the strongest ever recorded.
Forecasts give nearly 100% likelihood that the event will continue through February 2027.
Pacific Ocean temperatures are already more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal, placing the event among the four strongest since 1950.
The phenomenon is expected to peak near the end of this year and could contribute to record global temperatures in 2027.
The WMO is expanding early-warning and preparedness efforts amid risks to food, agriculture, health, energy and water supplies.
- Who
- The World Meteorological Organization, its Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and climate officials.
- What
- A very strong El Niño is expected to intensify and may become the strongest recorded, increasing the risk of extreme weather.
- Where
- The event is centered in the Pacific Ocean and is already affecting tropical areas, including Central America’s Dry Corridor.
- When
- Forecasts indicate it will persist through February 2027 and peak near the end of this year; the report was published on Sept. 3.
- Why
- Weakening trade winds and exceptionally warm Pacific waters are driving the event; El Niño can shift global rainfall and temperature patterns.
Key facts
- Forecast duration
- Nearly 100% likelihood of continuation through February 2027
- Expected peak
- Near the end of this year
- Pacific temperature anomaly
- More than 2 degrees Celsius above normal
- Historical ranking
- One of only four events in the top “very strong” category since records began in 1950
- Potential global effect
- 2027 could become the warmest year on record
- Current impact
- A severe food crisis has been reported across Central America’s Dry Corridor
- Preparedness response
- The WMO is strengthening early-warning and disaster-preparedness efforts
Quotes
Antonio Guterres
Secretary-General of the United Nations
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,”
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“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts,”
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Wilfran Moufouma Okia
Chief of climate prediction services at the World Meteorological Organization
“Normally after an El Niño event we tend to see a pulse in the global temperatures – a temporary one. 2027 has the potential to be the warmest on record.”
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