1 day ago

Erratic Monsoon and El Niño May Keep Food Prices Elevated

India did not receive enough rain during much of this year’s monsoon season.

Some months had heavy rain, but it was unevenly spread across time and places.

This can make crops grow less well even when the total planted area changes only a little.

Farmers also bought less of several kinds of fertilizer than they did a year earlier.

Prices for maize, pigeon pea and soyabean have already increased in some markets.

A weather pattern called El Niño may continue making India hotter and drier.

That could hurt winter crops such as wheat, mustard, chickpeas, potatoes and onions.

Food prices around the world are also rising because supplies are becoming tighter and shipping is being disrupted.

Together, these problems could make food inflation return and remain high.

Key facts

Monsoon rainfall: India’s cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall was 14.7% below the long-period average through September 13.
Affected subdivisions: Twenty-four of India’s 36 meteorological subdivisions recorded rainfall deficiencies exceeding 10%.
Kharif sowing: Kharif acreage was 1,086.3 lakh hectares as of September 4, 1.6% below the comparable 1,104 lakh hectares in 2025.
Selected price increase: Maize in Chhindwara was about Rs 2,625 per quintal versus Rs 2,165 a year earlier; pigeon pea in Akola was Rs 8,600 versus Rs 6,280; soyabean in Dewas was Rs 6,150 versus Rs 4,300.
El Niño outlook: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projected a more than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño developing from September through January.
Global food prices: The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations food price index reached 133.3 points in August, its highest level since November 2022.
International oil prices: Mumbai landed prices for imported crude palm, soyabean and sunflower oil were above their September 2025 averages.

indianexpress.com · 1 day ago