1 week ago
India’s Monsoon Faces 15% Deficit as El Niño Strengthens
India gets about 70% of its yearly rain from the monsoon.
This year, the monsoon could finish with about 15% less rain than usual.
That would make it the weakest monsoon since 2009.
A weather pattern called El Niño is becoming stronger and may reduce rain further in September.
September rain is important because many crops are growing and need water.
Cotton, soybean, corn and pulses could be especially affected.
Less rain could also leave less soil water for winter crops such as wheat and rapeseed.
Smaller harvests could raise some food prices and reduce farmers’ incomes.
However, the final effects will depend on where rain falls, crop conditions and government or market supplies.
India’s June–September monsoon rainfall could end about 15% below average, the weakest level since 2009.
The projected deficit is nearly twice the India Meteorological Department’s earlier forecast of an 8% shortfall.
Strengthening El Niño conditions could bring a particularly severe rainfall deficit across much of India in September.
Weak September rains could threaten cotton, soybean, corn and pulses while reducing soil moisture for wheat and rapeseed.
Lower crop output could affect food prices and rural incomes, though the impact will depend on regional rainfall and available stocks.
- Who
- India, the India Meteorological Department and farmers growing summer- and winter-sown crops.
- What
- India is projected to experience a monsoon season with rainfall about 15% below average, potentially its weakest since 2009.
- Where
- Across much of India, except for some eastern states; the monsoon may also withdraw early from northwestern India.
- When
- During the June–September monsoon season, with September expected to be especially important; an official September forecast was expected at the end of August or later that month.
- Why
- Strengthening El Niño conditions are expected to suppress rainfall, although the government says El Niño is not the only factor determining India’s monsoon.
Higher-Risk Outlook
Cautious Assessment
September rainfall
Higher-Risk Outlook
Two weather department sources said rainfall could be severely deficient in September, with most of India outside some eastern states receiving below-average rain.
Cautious Assessment
The official September forecast had not yet been issued, and the final outcome could change depending on later weather systems and regional rainfall.
Role of El Niño
Higher-Risk Outlook
Weather officials said strengthening El Niño is suppressing India’s rainfall and could intensify further in September.
Cautious Assessment
The government said El Niño is not the only factor affecting rainfall; its impact depends on oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
Food prices and rural incomes
Higher-Risk Outlook
Lower rainfall could reduce crop yields, raise food prices, weaken farm incomes and affect rural demand.
Cautious Assessment
A weak monsoon does not automatically mean all food prices will rise; effects depend on the final rainfall pattern, regional crop conditions and available stocks.
Key facts
- Projected seasonal rainfall
- About 85% of normal, or 15% below the long-term average.
- Potential record
- The weakest monsoon since 2009.
- Initial forecast
- The India Meteorological Department had earlier projected an 8% deficit.
- Rainfall since June 1
- About 13% below average; one report measured the deficit through August 24.
- Monthly rainfall pattern
- June was 35.4% below average, July was 1% above average and August was about 15% below average so far.
- Most exposed crops
- Cotton, soybean, corn and pulses; wheat and rapeseed may face reduced soil moisture later.
- Rainfall dependence
- The monsoon supplies around 70% of India’s annual rainfall.
- Vulnerable districts
- The Agriculture Ministry identified about 315 potentially affected districts, including 111 high-priority districts with irrigation coverage below 25%.
Quotes
Unnamed senior official with the India Meteorological Department
An IMD official discussing the expected effects of strengthening El Nino on India’s monsoon.
“We are witnessing the impact of El Nino on monsoon rainfall. It is likely to be severe in September, and we could see a double-digit deficit in rainfall.”
financialexpress.com
CNBC TV 18
telegraphindia.com
Sources
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