1 week ago
China's Edge in Advanced Nuclear Fuel Challenges US Reactor Plans
Advanced nuclear reactors need a special kind of fuel called HALEU.
China and Russia can currently make this fuel in large amounts.
The United States does not yet have a large commercial facility to make it.
US officials expect available supplies to be smaller than what reactor companies may need.
This could slow projects by companies such as TerraPower, X-energy and Kairos Power.
A European company expects to begin producing some HALEU in Britain in the early 2030s.
The US government has given billions of dollars to support domestic fuel production.
However, a watchdog says the government still needs to prove that its plans will create enough long-term supply.
China and Russia are the only countries currently able to produce HALEU at scale, according to the US Government Accountability Office.
The United States lacks commercial-scale HALEU enrichment capacity, while government supplies may not meet near-term reactor-developer demand.
The Energy Department expects about 21.2 metric tonnes of HALEU by 2028 and 23.4 metric tonnes by 2030.
US commercial demand is estimated at 50 metric tonnes annually by 2035 and about 500 metric tonnes by 2050.
The Energy Department has awarded $1.8 billion for domestic HALEU capacity but has not documented whether its measures can create sustainable production.
- Who
- The US Government Accountability Office, the US Department of Energy, China, Russia and advanced-reactor developers including TerraPower, X-energy and Kairos Power.
- What
- A report found that China and Russia have large-scale HALEU production infrastructure, while the United States faces a potential shortage of the fuel.
- Where
- The production gap involves the United States, China, Russia and planned facilities in Britain and South Africa.
- When
- The report was issued this week; projected US HALEU supplies cover 2028 and 2030, while commercial demand estimates extend to 2035 and 2050.
- Why
- HALEU is required by most advanced reactors, and the United States is trying to expand nuclear power while reducing dependence on Russian nuclear fuel.
Watchdog concerns
Department response
Whether US measures are sufficient
Watchdog concerns
The Government Accountability Office said the Energy Department had not documented an economic analysis showing that its measures would create commercially sustainable domestic HALEU production.
Department response
The Energy Department said it plans to complete an economic analysis by June 2027 and issue a congressionally required HALEU availability report by November.
Near-term fuel availability
Watchdog concerns
The watchdog reported that government supplies may not meet demand from reactor developers before commercial production becomes available, creating a potential strategic vulnerability.
Department response
The Energy Department is pursuing domestic capacity and expects its HALEU inventory to reach 21.2 metric tonnes by 2028 and 23.4 metric tonnes by 2030.
Key facts
- Fuel
- High-assay low-enriched uranium, or HALEU, is required by most advanced reactors under development.
- Current producers
- China and Russia are reported to have infrastructure capable of producing HALEU at scale.
- US supply forecast
- The Energy Department expects about 21.2 metric tonnes by the end of 2028 and 23.4 metric tonnes by the end of 2030.
- Projected demand
- US commercial demand is estimated at 50 metric tonnes annually by 2035 and about 500 metric tonnes by 2050.
- Domestic investment
- Washington has awarded $1.8 billion to two companies to develop domestic HALEU capacity.
- Alternative supply
- Urenco expects to produce about 10 metric tonnes of HALEU annually at a British facility in the early 2030s.
- Defense fuel costs
- The National Nuclear Security Administration estimates restoring long-term defense fuel supplies could cost about $140 billion through 2105.
Sources
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