2 weeks ago
Historic El Niño to develop by year-end, US agency says
A big weather event called El Niño is happening in the Pacific Ocean.
It happens when part of the ocean gets warmer than usual.
Scientists from NOAA say there is a good chance this one will be very strong.
They think it could be stronger than any El Niño since 1950.
It is expected to be strongest during winter at the end of the year.
El Niño can change weather all around the world.
In India, it can mean less rain during the monsoon season.
This year India has already received less rain than normal.
The effects on India usually appear about 40 to 45 days later.
Another weather pattern called the Indian Ocean Dipole may help reduce the bad effects.
NOAA reports a 69 per cent chance of an El Niño stronger than any event since 1950 during the October-December 2026 season.
There is a 90 per cent chance of a strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
The El Niño strengthened during July and is expected to intensify further in the coming months.
India's monsoon rainfall is below normal: 491.8 mm from June 1 to August 13, 12 per cent below normal (one report cites 12.6 per cent below normal as of August 14).
El Niño's effects on India typically lag by 40-45 days, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to partly offset its influence.
- Who
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India's Ministry of Earth Sciences, and climate scientist Akshay Deoras of the University of Reading
- What
- A potentially historic El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen through the end of the year
- Where
- The tropical Pacific, with likely impacts on global weather and India's monsoon
- When
- October-December 2026 season, peaking during the Northern Hemisphere winter
- Why
- El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), driven by changes in sea-surface temperatures, and is historically associated with below-average southwest monsoon rainfall in India
Key facts
- Chance of historic El Niño (Oct-Dec 2026)
- 69 per cent
- Chance of strong El Niño (Northern Hemisphere winter)
- 90 per cent
- India monsoon rainfall (Jun 1 - Aug 13)
- 491.8 mm, 12 per cent below normal
- Monsoon deficit cited on Aug 14
- 12.6 per cent below normal
- June rainfall deficit
- 35.4 per cent
- Monsoon official withdrawal date
- September 30
- Indian Ocean Dipole status
- Currently neutral, expected to turn positive
- IMD monsoon forecast
- 90 per cent of long period average, 'deficient to below normal'
Quotes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
U.S. climate and weather agency
“While El Niño generally reduces southwest monsoon rainfall, it has typically favoured northeast monsoon rainfall (October-December) over southern India. There are some early indications of a positive impact of El Niño on this year’s northeast monsoon season.”
financialexpress.com
“During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69 per cent chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.”
indianexpress.com
financialexpress.com
Sources
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