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Super El Niño May Bring India Drier, More Dangerous Monsoons

El Niño is a change in Pacific Ocean temperatures that can affect weather around the world.

It often makes India’s summer monsoon weaker.

But a weaker monsoon does not mean rain will disappear.

Sometimes long dry periods are interrupted by very heavy storms.

Those sudden storms can cause floods and landslides.

Kerala had less rain than usual overall this season, but it received extremely heavy rain in one week.

That rainfall was followed by deadly flooding and landslides.

Scientists expect El Niño to become very strong later in 2026, but it does not guarantee drought or floods.

The important question is where, when and how heavily the rain falls.

Key facts

National rainfall by early August: About 12% below average across India.
Kerala seasonal rainfall: About 22% below normal from June 1 to August 5.
Kerala’s wettest reported week: From July 30 to August 5, rainfall exceeded twice the usual amount.
Reported Kerala deaths: Twenty-six people had died in monsoon-related incidents by August 5.
Initial monsoon forecast: The India Meteorological Department predicted June–September rainfall at about 92% of the long-term average.
El Niño history: Seven of 16 El Niño years recorded since 1950 were associated with below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall.
Forecast El Niño strength: A CanSIPS model update forecast a peak of +4.15°C in September and six months at record strength.

scroll.in · 2 hrs ago