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IMD Warns September Rainfall Will Remain Below Normal
India did not get as much rain as usual in August.
Rainfall was about 16% lower than normal, and weather officials expect September to be dry too.
September is the last month of India’s main rainy season.
The India Meteorological Department says rainfall may be less than 91% of the usual amount.
By the end of August, the season had received only 84% of its normal rain.
Almost half of the monitored districts had received too little rain.
Scientists said a weather pattern called El Niño is weakening the monsoon.
Less rain and warmer temperatures could hurt some standing crops, especially where planting was late or irrigation is limited.
Odisha was an exception because it had received more rain than usual.
India’s August rainfall was 16.3% below normal, the seventh-largest August deficit since 2001.
The IMD forecasts September rainfall below 91% of the long-period average, potentially keeping the June-to-September season below 90%.
Seasonal rainfall through August stood at 84% of normal, while 312 of 741 monitored districts had deficient and 38 had severely deficient rainfall.
Strengthening moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions were identified as a major factor affecting monsoon activity.
Odisha recorded a 25% seasonal surplus, while the southern peninsula, eastern and northeastern regions, and several states experienced substantial shortfalls.
- Who
- The India Meteorological Department, led by Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, issued the forecast.
- What
- The IMD forecast below-normal September rainfall after August rainfall was 16.3% below normal.
- Where
- Across India, with some eastern, northeastern, central, northwestern and southeastern areas expected to receive normal or above-normal rainfall.
- When
- The forecast was issued at the end of August, before September, the final month of the June-to-September monsoon season.
- Why
- The IMD said strengthening moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions were affecting monsoon activity and contributing to weaker rainfall.
Concerns About a Weak Monsoon
Areas With Better Rainfall Prospects
September rainfall outlook
Concerns About a Weak Monsoon
The IMD expects rainfall below 91% of normal across most of India, with strengthening El Niño potentially weakening monsoon activity.
Areas With Better Rainfall Prospects
The IMD expects normal or above-normal rainfall in some areas of eastern, northeastern, central, northwestern and southeastern peninsular India.
Agricultural impact
Concerns About a Weak Monsoon
Below-normal rain combined with warmer September temperatures could affect standing crops, particularly where sowing was late or irrigation is inadequate.
Areas With Better Rainfall Prospects
The articles do not report a nationwide crop impact; they identify Odisha and several regions with normal, above-normal, or near-normal rainfall.
Regional rainfall performance
Concerns About a Weak Monsoon
The southern peninsula had a seasonal deficit of 24.2% and a monthly August deficit of more than 27%; east and northeast India had a seasonal shortfall of 25.7%.
Areas With Better Rainfall Prospects
Central India had near-normal seasonal rainfall with a 3.8% deficit, and Odisha recorded a 25% seasonal surplus.
Key facts
- August rainfall deficit
- 16.3% below normal nationwide
- September forecast
- Below 91% of the long-period average
- September long-period average
- About 167.9 millimetres
- Seasonal rainfall through August
- 84% of normal
- District rainfall status
- 312 of 741 districts had deficient rain and 38 had large deficiency
- El Niño conditions
- Moderate to strong conditions prevailed over the equatorial Pacific and were expected to intensify
- Odisha rainfall
- 25% above normal for the season
- August temperature
- The warmest August minimum temperature on record since 1901, at 28.01°C
Quotes
India Meteorological Department
India’s national weather agency
“Although four low pressure systems developed during the month of August and collectively persisted for 26 days, their rainfall activity was largely confined to the Indo-Gangetic Plains.”
indianexpress.com
“With below-normal rainfall expected in September, the season is most likely to remain below 90 per cent of the LPA”
indianexpress.com
Sources
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