Business · Economy · 5 hrs ago
Russian GDP growth in 2026 expected to be below last year’s 1%
Russia’s economy is expected to grow less in 2026 than in 2025, when GDP rose by 1%, Bank of Russia deputy governor Alexei Zabotkin told lawmakers.
The central bank’s current forecast puts 2026 growth at between 0% and 1%.
Changes in the central bank’s key interest rate affect borrowing and demand gradually, with their full effects taking about a year to a year and a half.
Russia has been at full employment for three years, so further growth depends largely on raising worker productivity, rather than adding more workers.
Government measures and high investment levels are helping productivity grow gradually, Zabotkin said.
The central bank will update its baseline forecast after its October meeting, taking new information into account.
The pace of growth matters because it shows how much the economy is expanding as the effects of earlier interest-rate decisions continue to feed through.
પૂર
Russia’s GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be slightly below the 1% recorded in 2025, Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin said.
The central bank’s current forecast puts growth in a range of 0% to 1%.
Zabotkin said the economy has been at full employment for three years, making further growth increasingly dependent on productivity.
He said the effects of changes in the key interest rate reach credit and demand over a period of three to six quarters.
The central bank’s baseline forecast will be updated after its October board meeting.
- Who
- Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin gave the assessment.
- What
- Russia’s GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be slightly below the 1% growth recorded in 2025.
- When
- The assessment was reported on October 13, 2026.
- Where
- Zabotkin made the remarks while speaking at the State Duma.
- Why
- Zabotkin said the economy has been at full employment for three years, so future growth depends largely on productivity gains.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia’s GDP growth would accelerate to 2.4% by 2029.
Zabotkin said first-half data confirmed that Russia’s economic growth was continuing.
Zabotkin said 2026 GDP growth would be slightly below the 1% recorded in 2025.
- 2025 GDP growth
- 1%
- 2026 central bank forecast range
- 0%–1%
- Expected 2026 growth
- Slightly below the 2025 rate
- Full employment
- Russia’s economy has been at full employment for three years
- Interest-rate effects
- Fully reflected in credit and demand after 3–6 quarters
What people are saying
Overall, GDP growth for the year will be slightly lower than last year’s.
Such growth always takes more time than growth through an increase in the number of people working.
I would emphasize that investment rose significantly from 2021 to 2024 and is now close to its historical highs.
Sources
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