Business · Economy · 1 hr ago
IMF cuts Russia’s growth forecast to 0.9% for 2026 and 2027
The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for Russia’s economic growth on October 13.
It now expects Russia’s economy to grow by 0.9% in both 2026 and 2027, down from its July forecast of 1.1% for each year.
The IMF says high global energy prices are supporting Russia’s economy, despite reduced supplies after Ukrainian strikes damaged oil infrastructure.
It also says increased defense spending partly offsets a weak outlook for energy-intensive economies.
Russia’s own economic ministry expects growth of 0.6% in 2026, while its central bank forecasts 0% to 1%; the World Bank expects 0.8%.
Forecasts for 2027 also differ: Russia’s central bank expects 1.5% to 2.5%, while the World Bank expects 0.7%.
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for Russia’s economic growth to 0.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
The updated forecast, released on October 13, is down from the IMF’s July projection of 1.1% for each year.
The IMF said high global energy prices are supporting Russia’s economy despite reduced supplies after Ukrainian strikes damaged oil infrastructure.
It also said increased defense spending partly offsets a weak outlook for energy-intensive economies and countries dependent on oil and gas imports.
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry and central bank have issued different growth forecasts, while the World Bank kept its 2026 forecast at 0.8%.
- Who
- The International Monetary Fund.
- What
- It lowered its forecast for Russia’s economic growth to 0.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
- When
- The updated forecast was released on October 13, 2026.
- Where
- Russia.
- Why
- The IMF cited high global energy prices and increased defense spending as factors supporting the economy, despite a weak overall outlook.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The IMF projected Russia’s economic growth at 1.1% in both 2026 and 2027.
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry raised its 2026 growth forecast from 0.4% to 0.6%.
The World Bank kept its 2026 growth forecast for Russia at 0.8%.
The IMF lowered its forecasts for Russia’s growth in 2026 and 2027 to 0.9% for each year.
- IMF growth forecast
- 0.9% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027
- Previous IMF forecast
- 1.1% for each year
- Economic Development Ministry forecast
- 0.6% growth in 2026
- Central bank forecast
- 0 to 1% growth in 2026; 1.5 to 2.5% in 2027
- World Bank forecast
- 0.8% growth in 2026; 0.7% in 2027 and 2028
What people are saying
favorable factors associated with increased defense spending
Sources
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