1 month ago
IMD Forecasts Below‑Normal Monsoon Rainfall for August‑September
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the monsoon rains in August and September will be a bit less than usual.
This is because a weather pattern called El Niño is getting stronger.
Some parts of India might still get enough rain, but most areas will get less.
The rain shortage could make it harder for farmers to grow crops like rice and cotton.
Even though July had good rain, the overall season is still expected to be below normal.
IMD forecasts below‑normal monsoon rainfall for August‑September, 90% of long‑period average (LPA).
A moderate El Niño is expected to persist in August and strengthen to strong in September, but a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may offset its impact.
Most of India will see below‑normal rainfall, except some north‑west, north‑east, east‑central, and eastern peninsular areas projected to receive normal to above‑normal rains.
The forecast follows a 13% cumulative deficit in June‑July, with June alone recording a 35% shortfall.
Below‑normal rains could affect kharif crop yields, though early sowing in July has helped reduce concerns about food prices.
- Who
- India Meteorological Department
- What
- Forecast of below‑normal monsoon rainfall for August‑September
- Where
- India
- When
- August‑September 2026
- Why
- Strengthening El Niño conditions, with possible offset from a positive Indian Ocean Dipole
Key facts
- Monsoon Season Forecast
- Below normal rainfall (90% of LPA)
- El Niño Status
- Moderate to strong expected
- Indian Ocean Dipole
- Positive in September may mitigate impact
- Affected Regions
- Most of India; normal to above‑normal in some north‑west, north‑east, east‑central, and eastern peninsular areas
- June‑July Deficit
- 13% cumulative deficit; June 35% shortfall
- Crop Impact
- Potential yield impact on kharif crops
Quotes
M Mohapatra, Director‑General of IMD
IMD's director‑general
“Even though moderate El Nino conditions prevailed over the equatorial Pacific, there were 24 days of low‑pressure systems formed in the head Bay of Bengal, which helped bring good rainfall over East, Central and West Central India.”
financialexpress.com
“"The moderate El Nino may continue in August, and it may move towards a ‘strong’ El Nino in September."”
thehindubusinessline.com
An official source
Represented a source within IMD
“"It may be close to around 93 per cent (or 393 mm) of its LPA of 422.8 mm in August-September, potentially easing pressure on many agriculture crops."”
thehindubusinessline.com
Sources
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