2 weeks ago
Government Sees Limited El Niño Impact on Kharif Crops
El Niño is a weather pattern that can change how much rain India receives.
The agriculture minister said there is not yet a major effect on kharif crops overall.
He said most crops have received enough water so far.
Planting has nearly caught up with the usual schedule.
Some areas, including parts of Karnataka and Telangana, still have water shortages.
Rain has also been uneven across different regions.
Experts warn that pulses and oilseeds could be affected by this uneven rainfall.
Skymet expects the monsoon to be weaker than previously predicted.
The India Meteorological Department is still maintaining its forecast of below-normal rainfall.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said El Niño was unlikely to significantly affect overall kharif crop yields.
Kharif sowing reached 101.6 million hectares, about 2% below the previous year and 92% of normal coverage.
Rainfall deficits remain in east and northeast, southern peninsular, and northwest India, while central India’s core rainfed zone received normal rainfall.
Shortages in parts of Karnataka and Telangana may have limited local effects, according to Chouhan.
Skymet lowered its monsoon forecast to 85% of the long-period average and assigned a 70% probability of drought.
- Who
- Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Skymet, the India Meteorological Department, and agricultural experts.
- What
- Officials said El Niño is unlikely to have a major overall impact on kharif crops for now, while forecasters warned of deficient and uneven monsoon rainfall.
- Where
- India, with rainfall shortages reported in eastern and northeastern, southern peninsular, northwestern, Karnataka, and Telangana regions.
- When
- The assessment was given on Tuesday during the current June-September monsoon and kharif sowing season.
- Why
- Adequate rainfall since July has reduced the overall monsoon gap, but El Niño, a weak Indian Ocean Dipole, and uneven rainfall distribution could still affect some crops and regions.
Government Assessment
Forecaster and Expert Concerns
Overall crop impact
Government Assessment
Shivraj Singh Chouhan said El Niño was not currently expected to have a significant effect on overall kharif yields, apart from limited local impacts.
Forecaster and Expert Concerns
Experts said uneven rainfall could reduce yields for several crops, particularly pulses and oilseeds.
Rainfall outlook
Government Assessment
The government said rainfall had generally been sufficient to meet crop water requirements and that sowing was recovering.
Forecaster and Expert Concerns
Skymet forecast rainfall at 85% of the long-period average, warned of a 20% September deficit, and cited a 70% drought probability.
Regional conditions
Government Assessment
Chouhan said shortages in parts of Karnataka and Telangana would have limited effects on overall output.
Forecaster and Expert Concerns
Rainfall data showed substantial deficits in east and northeast India, southern peninsular India, and northwest India, suggesting uneven regional conditions.
Key facts
- Kharif area sown
- 101.6 million hectares by the middle of August
- Comparison with previous year
- Overall sowing was about 2% lower
- Normal sowing coverage
- 92% of the normal area had been covered
- Overall rainfall gap
- The monsoon deficit narrowed to 12.6% on Tuesday, remaining in the deficient range
- Government assessment
- No major overall El Niño impact was expected at that stage
- Skymet forecast
- Monsoon rainfall was downgraded to 85% of the long-period average
- Skymet drought probability
- The agency estimated a 70% probability of drought
- India Meteorological Department forecast
- The department maintained a forecast of 90% of the long-period average
Quotes
Shivraj Singh Chouhan
Agriculture Minister of India
“We don’t see a huge impact of El Nino except in some places. The situation by and large remains good. Rainfall was sufficient to meet the full water needs of the crops.”
financialexpress.com
“As of now, we see no impact, while some areas of Karnataka and Telangana are facing water shortage where the impact will remain limited.”
financialexpress.com
Sources
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