2 weeks ago
Telangana Faces Steeper Monsoon Deficit as September Approaches
Telangana has received much less rain than expected this August.
The state is currently facing a 40% rainfall shortage.
Weather officials say the next four or five days are unlikely to bring much rain.
A storm-like system called a depression could form over the Bay of Bengal later this month.
If it moves toward Telangana, it could bring several days of useful rain.
However, this possibility is not certain.
Skymet expects India’s total monsoon rainfall to be lower than it first predicted.
Scientists are also watching El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole because they may affect the remaining monsoon rains.
Telangana has recorded a 40% overall rainfall deficit in August.
The IMD had forecast above-normal to normal August rain for much of Telangana.
A low-pressure system or depression over the Bay of Bengal could bring late-month relief.
The IMD says rainfall activity will remain limited over the next four to five days.
Skymet has lowered its national monsoon forecast to 85% of the long-period average.
- Who
- Telangana, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), and private forecaster Skymet.
- What
- Telangana’s August rainfall deficit is worsening, while forecasts point to below-normal rainfall for the rest of the monsoon.
- Where
- Telangana, with potential weather activity developing over the Bay of Bengal.
- When
- The deficit has been recorded in August; possible relief may come in the last week of the month, with September expected to be drier.
- Why
- Rainfall activity has weakened, while El Nino is strengthening and the Indian Ocean Dipole remains uncertain.
Potential for late-season relief
Cautious outlook for the remaining monsoon
Rainfall recovery
Potential for late-season relief
The IMD says a low-pressure system or depression forming over the Bay of Bengal could bring good rain to parts of Telangana and reduce the deficit.
Cautious outlook for the remaining monsoon
The IMD says such a system is only a possibility, and the next four to five days will not bring rainfall on the scale seen in July.
Overall monsoon performance
Potential for late-season relief
A late-month weather system could still improve rainfall in some parts of Telangana before the season ends.
Cautious outlook for the remaining monsoon
Skymet has reduced its national forecast to 85% of the long-period average and expects 84% in August and 80% in September.
Indian Ocean Dipole outlook
Potential for late-season relief
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole has traditionally helped offset El Nino’s adverse effects, and some international models suggest it may be turning positive.
Cautious outlook for the remaining monsoon
The IMD says its observations show the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral and is likely to remain so through the southwest monsoon season, making the effect uncertain.
Key facts
- Telangana August deficit
- 40% overall rainfall deficit
- IMD outlook
- The next four to five days are unlikely to see substantial rainfall activity.
- Potential relief
- A low-pressure system or depression over the Bay of Bengal could bring rain late in August.
- Skymet national forecast
- 85% of the long-period average, reduced from an earlier forecast of 94%.
- Skymet August forecast
- 84% of the long-period average.
- Skymet September forecast
- 80% of the long-period average.
- Indian Ocean Dipole
- The IMD says it remains neutral and is likely to stay neutral through the end of the southwest monsoon, while some international models indicate it may be turning positive.
Quotes
G.N.R.S. Murthy
Senior IMD scientist
““The next four to five days will not see much rainfall activity on the scale we saw in July. But if a low pressure or depression forms over the Bay, which we hope might happen towards the last week of this month, then we might get good rains again for a few days over some parts of the state that might help wipe out the deficit.””
deccanchronicle.com
““We are already witnessing a 40 per cent overall deficit this month for the state.””
deccanchronicle.com
Sources
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