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Delhi Rain Surplus Defies Regional Deficit Amid El Niño Concerns
Delhi has received more rain than usual this monsoon season.
This is unusual because nearby Haryana and Punjab have received much less rain.
Some nearby districts are short of between 32% and 69% of their normal rainfall.
Weather systems that begin over the Bay of Bengal may have taken a different path this year.
That path may have carried more rain toward Delhi.
El Niño, a climate pattern linked to warmer Pacific Ocean waters, may have helped change the weather.
Experts are also watching a possible strong El Niño in late 2026 or early 2027.
It could affect India’s monsoon and temperatures for some time.
Delhi received 8% more rainfall than its seasonal normal by September 16, despite deficits in surrounding regions.
Haryana recorded 23% less rainfall, while northwest India was 10% below normal.
Neighbouring districts including Sonipat, Rohtak, Hoshiarpur and Kapurthala reported deficits ranging from 32% to 69%.
Changing tracks of Bay of Bengal low-pressure systems, possibly influenced by El Niño, may have increased rainfall over Delhi-NCR.
India’s monsoon rainfall was reported as 13% below normal, while a potentially strong El Niño could affect weather through 2027.
- Who
- Delhi, neighbouring states and districts, Indian meteorologists, climate scientists and the UK Met Office.
- What
- Delhi recorded above-normal monsoon rainfall while nearby regions faced deficits, amid concerns about El Niño’s future effects on India’s weather.
- Where
- Delhi and Delhi-NCR, with comparisons involving Haryana, Punjab, northwest India and other northern Indian regions; El Niño conditions are developing in the Pacific Ocean.
- When
- Delhi’s rainfall assessment was reported as of September 16; the potential El Niño is expected to peak between late 2026 and early 2027.
- Why
- Possible changes in Bay of Bengal low-pressure-system tracks, interactions with western disturbances and El Niño-related weather changes may have contributed to Delhi’s rainfall surplus.
Key facts
- Delhi rainfall
- 8% above seasonal normal as of September 16
- Haryana rainfall
- 23% below normal
- Northwest India rainfall
- 10% below normal
- India monsoon rainfall
- 13% below normal, according to the cited report
- District deficits
- Sonipat was 32% below normal, Rohtak 47%, Hoshiarpur 53% and Kapurthala 69%
- Potential El Niño peak
- Expected sometime between late 2026 and early 2027
- Pacific temperature projection
- Some projections indicate temperatures more than 3°C above average by late 2026 or early 2027
Sources
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