3 weeks ago
Pacific Typhoon Season Forecast Among Most Active Ever
Typhoons are giant spinning storms that form over warm ocean water.
The Pacific Ocean near Asia may have a very busy typhoon season this year.
Scientists at a group called Tropical Storm Risk say it could be one of the most active seasons ever recorded.
They predict about 20 typhoons will form, including 13 very strong ones.
Normally, only about 14 typhoons form in a season, and about 8 of them are strong.
This is happening because of a weather pattern called El Niño, which warms the ocean and makes storms stronger.
Already, three of the most powerful typhoons have formed by the start of August.
Typhoons can hit countries like China, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam, so people there should be careful.
Meanwhile, the Atlantic Ocean is expected to have fewer hurricanes than usual.
The Northwest Pacific typhoon season is forecast to be one of the most intense on record, with activity 60% above the historical average.
Tropical Storm Risk predicts 20 typhoons will form, including 13 intense storms, versus 10-year averages of 14.2 and 8.4.
Three Category 5 typhoons had already formed this season as of Aug. 1.
A strong El Niño event, forecast to intensify through summer and autumn, is driving the elevated storm activity.
In contrast, the Atlantic basin is expected to see a quieter-than-usual hurricane season due to El Niño wind shear and dry air.
- Who
- Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based commercial forecaster, and its manager Adam Lea, along with the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center
- What
- Forecast that the Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be one of the most active on record, with 20 typhoons and 13 intense storms predicted
- Where
- Northwest Pacific Ocean, where storms can hit China, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam
- When
- Forecast published Monday; the typhoon season typically runs June to October, with three Category 5 storms already recorded as of Aug. 1
- Why
- A strong El Niño event expected to intensify through summer and autumn, along with the weakest trade winds in over six decades and record Pacific Ocean temperatures
Key facts
- Forecaster
- Tropical Storm Risk (London-based)
- Predicted typhoons
- 20 total, 13 intense
- 10-year average
- 14.2 typhoons, 8.4 intense
- Activity level
- 60% above historical average; 'exceptionally active season'
- Category 5 typhoons
- 3 recorded as of Aug. 1
- Main driver
- Strong El Niño event expected to intensify
- Trade winds
- Weakest in over six decades
- Atlantic outlook
- Quieter-than-usual hurricane season expected
Quotes
Adam Lea
Manager at Tropical Storm Risk
“"A strong El Niño event has developed and is forecast to intensify further through the rest of summer and autumn."”
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