Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 3 hrs ago
A 1960 Population Model’s 2026 Doomsday Forecast Fell Behind Reality
In 1960, Heinz von Foerster and two students published a mathematical model of human population growth.
They predicted that population would approach infinity on November 13, 2026, causing people to be “squeezed to death.”
Their calculation drew on population estimates covering the previous 2,000 years and the idea that human growth could accelerate as people collaborated.
The forecast became widely discussed and was cited in textbooks for decades.
But around 1993, global population began growing more slowly than the model had predicted.
Today, the global birth rate is slightly less than half its 1960 level.
The model’s forecast of catastrophe is therefore not supported by the population trend described here, and the date may pass as an ordinary day.
A 1960 mathematical model forecast that the human population would approach infinity on November 13, 2026.
The model’s projections appeared accurate for decades, but global population growth began falling behind them around 1993.
The researchers argued that human populations could grow faster than exponentially because people can collaborate to solve problems.
They said reducing the global birth rate by half could avert the projected catastrophe.
Global birth rates are now slightly less than half their 1960 level.
- Who
- Heinz von Foerster and his students Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot developed the model.
- What
- The model forecast a population catastrophe on November 13, 2026, but global population growth fell behind its projections.
- When
- The model was published in 1960 and forecast a crisis on November 13, 2026.
- Where
- The model was published in the journal Science. The forecast concerned the global human population.
- Why
- The researchers argued that human populations could grow at an ever-increasing rate because people can communicate and form coalitions.
The model’s authors
Critics of the model
Forecast
The model’s authors
They argued that human population growth could accelerate beyond an exponential rate and approach infinity in 2026.
Critics of the model
Mathematicians and demographers criticized the work, calling it “ridiculous” and “manifestly absurd.
Response
The model’s authors
The authors defended the model’s mathematics and conclusions.
Critics of the model
The critics challenged the authors’ work.
Science published the article forecasting that the human population would approach infinity in 2026.
Global population began falling behind the model’s forecasts.
The date the model forecast a population catastrophe.
- Publication year
- 1960
- Forecast date
- November 13, 2026
- Authors
- Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot
- Data used
- 24 estimates of world population spanning 2,000 years
- Growth slowdown
- Global population began falling behind forecasts around 1993
What people are saying
Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve
They will be squeezed to death.
Sources
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