Business · Markets · 22 hrs ago
US moves to bring prediction markets and perpetual futures into finance
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, has taken steps to bring more products into regulated financial markets.
It approved a perpetual futures product linked to a major US stock index offered by prediction-market company Kalshi.
Perpetual futures let traders bet on price movements without exchanging the underlying asset, and they are widely used in crypto markets.
The CFTC also sent a proposal for review that would classify some prediction-market contracts as swaps, while excluding casino-style betting products.
The proposal comes as US states continue lawsuits over whether prediction markets break gambling laws.
Together, the steps could support financial apps that combine crypto, stocks and event-based trading and operate around the clock using stablecoins.
The commentary argues that this could strengthen the dollar’s global role, while warning that South Korea’s regulatory barriers could leave its market at a disadvantage.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved a Kalshi perpetual futures contract tied to a major US stock index.
The move followed the CFTC’s approval of bitcoin perpetual futures in late May, expanding the underlying assets to include US stock indexes.
The CFTC also sent a proposed rule to the White House that would classify certain prediction-market contracts as swaps while excluding casino-style betting products.
The steps seek to bring perpetual futures and prediction markets under federal financial regulation, as state governments continue lawsuits over alleged gambling-law violations.
- Who
- The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission and prediction-market company Kalshi.
- What
- The CFTC approved a Kalshi perpetual futures contract tied to a major US stock index and proposed a rule on prediction-market contracts.
- When
- The approval was reported on October 2, followed by another change the next day. The proposed rule was sent to White House review late the previous month.
- Where
- The United States.
- Why
- The proposed rule would treat certain prediction-market contracts as federally regulated financial products, distinct from casino-style gambling.
State governments
US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Legal classification
State governments
State governments have filed lawsuits alleging violations of gambling laws.
US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
The CFTC is seeking to classify certain prediction-market contracts as federally regulated financial products rather than gambling.
No direct quotes in the coverage so far.
The CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures for the first time.
The CFTC sent a proposed rule on prediction-market contracts to the White House for review.
The CFTC approved Kalshi’s perpetual futures contract tied to a major US stock index.
The CFTC allowed long-dated listed stock-index futures to be converted into perpetual futures.
- Company
- Kalshi
- Regulator
- US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
- Underlying asset
- Major US stock index
- First approval
- Bitcoin perpetual futures, late May
- Proposed rule
- Certain prediction-market contracts defined as swaps; casino-style betting products excluded
Sources
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