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North Indian States Face Worsening Rainfall Deficits
Rain is very important for farmers in India.
This year, some parts of India are not getting enough rain.
The states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana are getting much less rain than normal.
Even Delhi and Himachal Pradesh are not getting enough.
The people who study the weather say this problem will get worse.
They think August will have less rain than usual.
One reason is something called El Nino, which is a weather pattern that can make rain go away.
Another reason is a special weather wave that usually means less rain over India.
After August 10, there may be a break where almost no rain falls for a few weeks.
This is bad news for farmers who need rain for their crops.
The weather experts hope things will get better, but for now, the rain is not coming.
Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh recorded rainfall deficits between 20 per cent and 55 per cent in the first week of August.
India's overall rainfall deficit for the first week of August stands at about 12 per cent.
The India Meteorological Department forecast below-normal rainfall for August, averaging less than 94 per cent of the long period average.
Moderate El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific are expected to strengthen through the rest of the monsoon season.
Weather experts expect a 'break' period after 10 August, likely leading to at least a few weeks of subdued rainfall.
Cumulative seasonal deficits from 1 June to 5 August stand at 24 per cent for UP, 33 per cent for Punjab, 26 per cent for Haryana, 38 per cent for Bihar and 30 per cent for Jharkhand.
Delhi is an outlier with cumulative rainfall in excess of 9 per cent.
- Who
- India Meteorological Department (IMD), Skymet Weather Services vice-president Mahesh Palawat, and states including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and Himachal Pradesh
- What
- The first week of August began with an overall rainfall deficit of about 12 per cent, with several north Indian states facing deficits of 20-55 per cent and a below-normal August forecast
- Where
- India, particularly Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and Himachal Pradesh
- When
- First week of August (between 1 and 4 August), and expected to continue through the rest of the monsoon season
- Why
- Moderate El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific are expected to strengthen, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation entering Phase 6 signals reduced rainfall activity over India
Forecast Reliable / Deficit Serious
Forecast Uncertain
August rainfall outlook
Forecast Reliable / Deficit Serious
IMD and Skymet forecast a deepening deficit with a 'break' period after 10 August, expecting the month to end on a deficit.
Forecast Uncertain
The article notes only forecasts and warnings; actual rainfall outcomes remain to be seen, with data only covering the first week of August.
Key facts
- Overall August first-week deficit
- About 12 per cent
- Haryana deficit (first week)
- 54 per cent
- Uttar Pradesh deficit (first week)
- 33 per cent
- Punjab deficit (first week)
- 30 per cent
- Delhi deficit (first week)
- 33 per cent
- Himachal Pradesh deficit (first week)
- 43 per cent
- August forecast
- Below-normal rainfall, averaging less than 94 per cent of the long period average
- Weather phenomenon
- Moderate El Nino conditions strengthening; MJO entering Phase 6
Quotes
Mahesh Palawat
Vice‑president, meteorology and climate change, Skymet Weather Services
“After 10 August, a break condition is likely to be experienced. We are expecting to end the month on a deficit.”
theprint.in
Sources
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