2 weeks ago
Tata Motors CV shares surge over 6% after Q1 profit
Tata Motors makes trucks and other big vehicles that businesses use.
In the three months ending in June, the commercial vehicles part of the company made much more profit than it did a year earlier.
Because the results were so good, many investors wanted to buy the company's shares, and the share price jumped by more than 6% in one day.
The company's profit after tax grew by 83% compared with the same period last year.
Some financial experts, called analysts, are very optimistic and think the shares will go even higher, so they set high target prices.
Others are more careful and believe the shares are already fairly priced, so they told investors to hold rather than buy.
The company is investing in electric commercial vehicles, and one in ten of its small commercial vehicles is now electric.
Tata Motors raised its prices in July to help cover rising material costs.
Everyone agrees the company is doing well right now, but they disagree about what will happen next.
Tata Motors CV shares surged over 6% on Thursday after the company reported an 83% year-on-year rise in consolidated profit after tax for the June quarter (₹2,600 crore in one report, ₹2,560 crore in another).
Nomura upgraded Tata Motors CV to 'buy' with a target price of ₹554 and raised its FY27 medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) demand growth estimate to 8% from 5%.
CLSA maintained its 'outperform' rating with a ₹596 target price, noting the Q1 EBITDA margin of 11.3% beat consensus by about 50 basis points.
Elara Capital retained its 'accumulate' rating and raised its target price to ₹508 from ₹423, citing 100 basis points of year-on-year market share gains to 36.8% in Q1.
Motilal Oswal reiterated a 'neutral' rating with a ₹434 target price while raising its FY27 and FY28 earnings estimates by 6% and 2% respectively.
- Who
- Tata Motors' commercial vehicles business (Tata Motors CV) and brokerages Nomura, CLSA, Elara Capital and Motilal Oswal
- What
- Reported an 83% year-on-year rise in consolidated profit after tax for the June quarter (₹2,600 crore in one report, ₹2,560 crore in another), sending shares up over 6%
- Where
- India (Tata Motors is among Nifty 100 companies; the specific exchange is not stated)
- When
- Thursday, August 13, 2026
- Why
- Better-than-expected Q1 earnings, largely positive brokerage commentary and several target-price hikes drove the share surge
Bullish Analysts
Cautious Analysts
Share valuation and price targets
Bullish Analysts
Nomura, CLSA and Elara see further upside after the strong Q1, setting target prices of ₹554, ₹596 and ₹508 respectively, all above the current market price.
Cautious Analysts
Motilal Oswal retained a neutral rating with a ₹434 target below the market price, suggesting the good news is already priced in even after raising FY27 and FY28 earnings estimates by 6% and 2%.
Margin outlook amid rising costs
Bullish Analysts
CLSA and Elara expect the July price hike and ongoing cost-reduction measures to cushion commodity inflation, which had a 340bp year-on-year negative impact on Q1 margins (partially offset by 140bps of positive operating leverage and price hikes).
Cautious Analysts
The company itself flagged cost pressure ahead, commodity costs remain inflationary, and one article reported Q1 EBITDA margin fell 76bps year-on-year.
Severity of the industry downcycle
Bullish Analysts
Elara does not expect any downcycle to be as severe as historical 40-60% peak-to-trough declines, forecasting 3-4% MHCV industry CAGR in FY26-28E.
Cautious Analysts
Historical cycles have seen 40-60% declines, and Motilal Oswal's neutral stance reflects caution about the coming cycle despite the strong Q1.
Key facts
- Stock surge
- Over 6% intraday on Thursday; high of ₹485, traded at ₹478.10 (one report cites ₹484.6) vs previous close of ₹457.05; market cap crossed ₹1.68 lakh crore
- Q1 consolidated profit after tax
- ₹2,600 crore, up 83% year-on-year (one report cites ₹2,560 crore)
- Q1 revenue and EBITDA
- Revenue up 19.3% to ₹20,667 crore; EBITDA up 8.6% to ₹2,640 crore
- Q1 EBITDA margin
- Reported as 11.3% in one article and 15.83% in another (a discrepancy between sources)
- Market share
- 36.8% in Q1, up 100bps year-on-year
- July price hike
- 2.5% (one report says 25%)
- Brokerage ratings and targets
- Nomura: Buy/₹554; CLSA: Outperform/₹596; Elara: Accumulate/₹508 (raised from ₹423); Motilal Oswal: Neutral/₹434
- EV penetration
- 10% in the small commercial vehicle (SCV) segment
Sources
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