3 weeks ago

India's weak monsoon may add to global food inflation

India's weak monsoon may add to global food inflation
India's weak monsoon may add to global food inflation as wars disrupt farm supplies · firstpost.com

Growing food costs a lot of money, and this year some things are making it harder for farmers.

The monsoon rains in India started late and were weaker than usual, which worried people about the rice that India grows.

Wars in West Asia and Ukraine have also made fuel and fertiliser more expensive, and farmers need those to grow crops.

The United Nations food expert, Maximo Torero, thinks the price of food will start going up by the end of 2026 and even more in 2027.

It usually takes about three to six months for higher costs to show up in the shops.

But not everyone is worried: a report from Bajaj Asset Management says India has lots of stored grain and the rains are getting better.

That means the weak monsoon probably will not hurt India's whole economy too much.

Farmers in other countries, like Australia and the United States, are also facing higher costs.

A big weather pattern called El Nino might also make things harder for crops.

That is why experts say we need to watch food prices closely over the next year.

Key facts

Key figure
Maximo Torero, Chief Economist, UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Forecast
Food prices to start rising by end of 2026, with further increases expected in 2027
India monsoon
Delayed start with below-average rainfall; June 2026 among the driest in more than a century
India food grain stocks
Approximately five times the prescribed buffer level
India projected CPI inflation
5-5.5 per cent in FY27, driven mainly by temporary food supply pressures
Australia winter crop forecast
Projected to decline 21 per cent due to higher fuel and fertiliser costs
US farm losses
Farmers of nine major crops could lose $32 billion in 2027 without additional federal support
Climate risk
Strengthening El Nino expected to alter rainfall across key agricultural regions

Quotes

Maximo Torero

Chief Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

“I expect that commodity prices will start to increase more now, and food prices will start increasing by the end of the year. Next year, for sure, they will increase more.”
firstpost.com
“You're hearing this in Europe, in the US, Brazil and in Asia. Tight margins are putting stress in planting decisions.”
firstpost.com

Sources

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