Business · Trade · 21 hrs ago
Türkiye export outlook weakens as import expectations rise
Türkiye’s Trade Ministry survey found that firms’ expectations for exports weakened in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The export expectations index fell 4.6 points from the previous quarter to 96.9.
It was also 8.4 points lower than in the same quarter a year earlier.
The ministry linked the fall to weaker assessments of current export orders and orders received over the previous three months, although expectations for the next three months supported the index.
In contrast, the import expectations index rose 12.7 points from the previous quarter to 115.4, and was 0.3 points higher than a year earlier.
Firms reported stronger expectations for imports and import prices, along with improved assessments of recent import orders.
The survey measures firms’ views of current trade conditions and their outlook for the coming months.
Türkiye’s export expectations index fell by 4.6 points quarter-on-quarter to 96.9 in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The import expectations index rose by 12.7 points to 115.4.
The Trade Ministry said weaker assessments of current export orders drove the export index’s decline.
Stronger import expectations and assessments of current import orders supported the rise in the import index.
- Who
- Firms surveyed by Türkiye’s Trade Ministry.
- What
- Export expectations weakened while import expectations strengthened in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- When
- The survey was released on Oct. 8, 2026.
- Where
- Türkiye.
- Why
- Weaker assessments of current export orders weighed on the export index; stronger import expectations and order assessments supported the import index.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
No direct quotes in the coverage so far.
The export expectations index stood at 101.5.
The Trade Ministry released its Foreign Trade Expectations Survey, reporting fourth-quarter index figures.
- Export expectations index
- 96.9 in the fourth quarter of 2026, down 4.6 points quarter-on-quarter
- Import expectations index
- 115.4 in the fourth quarter of 2026, up 12.7 points quarter-on-quarter
- Year-on-year export change
- Down 8.4 points
- Year-on-year import change
- Up 0.3 points
- Survey release date
- Oct. 8, 2026
Sources
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