Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 1 hr ago
A 1960 population model pointed to 2026, but it was not a doomsday prediction
A 1960 study projected a striking population milestone for 2026 if growth continued at the rate seen over the previous 2,000 years.
Physicist Heinz von Foerster and researchers at the University of Illinois warned that unchecked growth could put pressure on resources and living space.
The date, November 13, 2026, was a mathematical projection, not proof of an impending catastrophe.
The study's forecasts broadly matched population trends until the 1990s, but falling birth rates later changed the outlook.
United Nations estimates now suggest the global population will reach about 10.3 billion in 2084 and then begin to decline.
That shift has raised concerns about aging populations and fewer working-age people, which could strain economies, health care and social security systems.
The date is nearing, but the study does not show that humanity will end on that day.
A 1960 population model pointed to November 13, 2026, but did not predict that the world would end on that date.
The model assumed that population would keep growing at the rate seen over the previous two millennia.
The article says the model’s projections largely tracked trends until the 1990s, after which falling birth rates changed the outlook.
United Nations projections say the world population is expected to reach about 10.3 billion in 2084 and then decline.
The story also discusses today’s concerns about ageing populations and global risks including nuclear conflict and climate change.
- Who
- Physicist Heinz von Foerster and researchers at the University of Illinois wrote the 1960 study.
- What
- The study used a mathematical model to explore the consequences of continued population growth.
- When
- It was published in 1960 and identified November 13, 2026, under its assumptions.
- Where
- The article was published in Science. The study’s location is not stated.
- Why
- It examined what might happen if population growth continued at the rate seen over the previous two millennia.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The population-model study was published in Science.
The study’s population projections had largely tracked trends up to this period, according to the article.
Milliyet published its article about the model and the date it identified.
The date identified by the model is reached, assuming the growth rate used in its calculations continues.
United Nations projections say the world population is expected to reach about 10.3 billion and then begin to decline.
- Study publication
- 1960
- Identified date
- November 13, 2026
- Study authors
- Heinz von Foerster and University of Illinois researchers
- Population projection
- About 10.3 billion in 2084
- Article outlet
- Milliyet
What people are saying
Our great-great-grandchildren will not die of hunger, they will die from crowding.
On this date, if the human population continues to grow as it has over the last two thousand years, it will approach infinity.
Our current course is unsustainable.
Sources
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