Business · Trade · 3 days ago
WTO raises 2026 goods trade growth forecast to 3.9% as AI demand surges
The WTO now expects the amount of goods traded worldwide to grow faster than it predicted earlier this year.
Strong demand for semiconductors and servers used in artificial intelligence helped drive the increase.
That growth outweighed some disruption to energy, fertilizer and transport markets from the Middle East conflict.
The forecast depends partly on continued AI investment and how the conflict develops.
The World Trade Organization raised its forecast for growth in global merchandise trade in 2026 to 3.9%, from 1.9% forecast in March.
The WTO said strong demand for goods used in artificial intelligence infrastructure helped offset disruption from the conflict in the Middle East.
Global merchandise trade volume grew 3.5% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.
Trade in semiconductors, servers and other goods needed for AI rose 67% in value during the first half and accounted for 47% of the increase in merchandise trade value.
The WTO expects merchandise trade volume to grow 4.1% in 2027, but said the forecast depends partly on the conflict’s resolution and continued AI investment.
- Who
- The World Trade Organization revised its forecast. Its economists expect global merchandise trade to grow faster than previously projected.
- What
- The WTO raised its 2026 forecast for growth in merchandise trade volume to 3.9%, from 1.9%.
- When
- The revised forecast was announced on October 8, 2026.
- Where
- Global merchandise trade.
- Why
- Strong demand linked to AI investment more than offset the effects of the Middle East conflict and related supply disruptions.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
These figures show the resilience of trade
Global trade performed much better than expected in the first half of 2026
I think uncertainty is something that greatly affects productive sectors
The WTO forecast 1.9% growth in global merchandise trade volume for 2026.
Global merchandise trade volume grew 3.5% year on year, while trade in AI-related goods rose 67% in value.
The WTO raised its 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9%.
The WTO expects merchandise trade volume to grow 4.1%.
- 2026 merchandise trade forecast
- 3.9% growth, up from 1.9%
- 2027 merchandise trade forecast
- 4.1% growth, up from the March forecast of 2.6%
- First-half 2026 trade volume growth
- 3.5% year on year
- AI-related goods trade
- Up 67% in value in the first half of 2026
- AI-related goods’ contribution
- 47% of the increase in global merchandise trade value
Sources
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