Datafolha poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula 52% to 48%

A first Datafolha poll for Brazil’s presidential runoff puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula, 52% to 48%.

The figures are voting intentions, not the final result.

The commentary says Flávio has gained support, including from voters who backed third-party candidates, and that some people who voted for Lula in 2022 now support Flávio.

It also points to Lula’s 46% rejection rate and years without reaching 50% approval as obstacles for him.

Lula has responded with campaign promises, while Flávio has made proposals the commentary describes as incomplete or disconnected.

Four debates were planned for the 21 days between the two rounds, but the first, scheduled on Record, was canceled.

Debates are set to follow on SBT, Band and Globo, with the Globo event two days before the vote.

Either candidate could still miss any of them, and the commentary says the debates may give the other candidate a valuable platform.

The poll does not settle the outcome; the commentary notes that Dilma Rousseff turned around a runoff race after an early poll in 2014.