Business · Markets · 2 hrs ago
Analyst says Spanish election outcome may affect markets if it leaves no clear winner
Spain is due to hold an early election on November 29.
Antonio Castelo, an analyst at iBroker, says past elections have not usually hurt the Spanish stock market: the Ibex rose between the announcement and the vote in seven of ten cases since 1996.
He says there is currently no sign that investors see greater political risk in Spain, while markets are paying more attention to France and Italy.
But a result with no clear winner could shift attention to Spain, especially because governments would be dealing with high public debt and deficits.
Castelo says he is more concerned about instability in bond markets than about the election itself.
He identifies Inditex, Iberdrola and ACS as companies whose international business or financial strength may help them weather the political uncertainty.
Investors will be watching the election result and whether it produces a stable government.
Analyst Antonio Castelo says Spain’s election could draw greater market concern if it produces no clear winner.
He says investors currently focus more on France and Italy than on Spain.
Castelo says Spain’s stock market and bond spread have not shown the warning signs he is watching.
He identifies Inditex, Iberdrola and ACS as stocks to consider during the election period.
- Who
- Antonio Castelo, an analyst at iBroker, assessed the possible market impact.
- What
- Spain’s election outcome could affect investor attention if it leaves no clear winner.
- When
- The election is scheduled for 29 November; the article was published on 12 October 2026.
- Where
- Spain.
- Why
- A lack of government stability could draw international market attention to Spain amid high public debt and deficits.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Expansión published Castelo’s assessment of the possible market impact of Spain’s election.
Spain is scheduled to hold the election.
- Analyst
- Antonio Castelo of iBroker
- Election date
- 29 November
- Stocks highlighted
- Inditex, Iberdrola and ACS
- Market warning signs
- Weaker Spanish stock performance than European peers, or a Spanish-German bond spread increase that differs from other markets
- Current investor focus
- France and Italy
What people are saying
Since 1996, the Spanish stock market has not suffered systematically from the calling of elections.
I am more concerned about instability in the debt market than the elections.
In a global context of high public debt and deficits, a lack of government stability in Spain could shift the attention of international markets, currently focused on France.










