2 weeks ago
JPMorgan Analysts Struggle to Model Oil as Iran War Continues
JPMorgan analysts are having trouble predicting what will happen to oil prices because the Iran war has lasted longer than expected.
The war has already disrupted about 10 million barrels of oil supply each day.
Oil prices are now close to $106 per barrel.
The analysts think oil would normally be worth about $90 per barrel in September.
This suggests that traders are worried about even more supply disruptions.
Attacks on important energy infrastructure have increased those fears.
The world still has some stored oil to help prevent prices from rising too quickly.
But prices could remain higher if oil shipments from the Middle East stay low.
The analysts also say there are no clear signs that the United States and Iran are ready to reduce tensions.
JPMorgan analysts say the war’s end and its effects on oil prices are increasingly difficult to predict.
Oil has risen above $100 a barrel, while gasoline prices approach $5 per gallon and Treasury yields have surged.
The analysts estimate September oil fair value at about $90 a barrel, below prices near $106.
Markets may be pricing in another 4 million barrels per day of supply losses beyond the 10 million already disrupted.
If Middle Eastern oil flows remain reduced, fourth-quarter and December 2026 prices could exceed forecasts by $7 and $8, respectively.
- Who
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. oil analysts, including Natasha Kaneva, along with oil traders and analysts.
- What
- They are reassessing oil-price forecasts as the Iran war continues and supply disruptions increase.
- Where
- The effects are centered on Iran and the Middle East, with a possible diplomatic meeting planned in Washington, D.C.
- When
- More than six months after the war began; a possible diplomatic turning point is expected on September 24.
- Why
- The war has disrupted oil supplies, attacks have affected energy infrastructure, and neither the United States nor Iran has signaled clear de-escalation.
Temporary Disruption View
Prolonged Risk View
How long the supply shock may last
Temporary Disruption View
Remaining global inventories could help limit further crude-price gains, supporting the view that the disruption may eventually ease.
Prolonged Risk View
With no clear de-escalation signals from the United States or Iran, assuming the disruption is temporary is becoming harder.
Current oil valuation
Temporary Disruption View
JPMorgan’s estimated September fair value is about $90 a barrel, below the market price near $106, suggesting prices may include a substantial risk premium.
Prolonged Risk View
The market may be pricing in an additional 4 million barrels per day of supply losses beyond the 10 million barrels per day already disrupted.
Future price outlook
Temporary Disruption View
Current forecasts remain around $80 a barrel for the fourth quarter and $78 for December 2026.
Prolonged Risk View
If Middle Eastern oil flows stay at current levels, JPMorgan says prices could be $7 and $8 above those forecasts, respectively.
Key facts
- Current oil price
- Prices are close to $106 a barrel.
- September fair value
- JPMorgan estimates fair value at about $90 a barrel.
- Existing supply disruption
- About 10 million barrels per day have already been disrupted.
- Potential additional disruption
- Markets may be pricing in another 4 million barrels per day of losses.
- Fourth-quarter forecast impact
- Prices could be $7 above the current forecast of about $80 a barrel if Middle Eastern flows remain reduced.
- December 2026 forecast impact
- Prices could be $8 above the current forecast of about $78 a barrel.
- Remaining supply cushion
- Global inventories still provide some buffer against further price increases.
Quotes
JPMorgan oil analysts
Oil analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. who authored the cited market note
“With no clear signals from either the US or Iran that they are prepared to de-escalate — and absent a diplomatic breakthrough on Sept. 24, when President Trump and President Xi are set to meet in DC — the assumption that the disruption is temporary is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain”
livemint.com
“The market is on edge, in our view”
livemint.com
Sources
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