3 weeks ago

Treasury yields fall as jobs report dashes Fed hike bets

Treasury yields fall as jobs report dashes Fed hike bets
Treasury yields fall as jobs report dashes hike bets · livemint.com

The U.S. government borrows money by selling special notes called Treasury bonds.

When lots of people want those notes, their price goes up and the interest rate they pay goes down.

In July, U.S. employers lost 23,000 jobs instead of gaining the 80,000 jobs experts expected.

Usually, when fewer people have jobs, the Federal Reserve—the group that sets interest rates—is less likely to raise them.

After the jobs news, people who trade these notes lowered their bets that the Fed would raise rates in September.

They still think there is a good chance of a rate increase by December.

Everything costs more than it used to, so prices staying high could still push the Fed to act.

Fighting involving Iran could also make oil more expensive, which might make inflation worse.

Next week, the Treasury will try to sell lots of new notes, and new inflation numbers will come out, so prices of these notes may keep jumping around.

Key facts

July Nonfarm Payrolls
-23,000 jobs (vs. 80,000 expected)
Unemployment Rate
4.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
+3.2% (vs. 3.5% consensus)
September Rate Hike Odds
44% (down from 55%)
December Rate Hike Odds
77%
2-Year Treasury Yield
4.202% (low of 4.1536%)
10-Year Treasury Yield
4.656%
Treasury Supply Next Week
$125 billion coupon-bearing debt

Quotes

Tom di Galoma

Managing director of global rates trading at Mischler Financial Group

“This is a very weak labor market that's all of a sudden happened, it takes the Fed off the hiking table.”
livemint.com

Sources

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