3 weeks ago
Treasury yields fall as jobs report dashes Fed hike bets
The U.S. government borrows money by selling special notes called Treasury bonds.
When lots of people want those notes, their price goes up and the interest rate they pay goes down.
In July, U.S. employers lost 23,000 jobs instead of gaining the 80,000 jobs experts expected.
Usually, when fewer people have jobs, the Federal Reserve—the group that sets interest rates—is less likely to raise them.
After the jobs news, people who trade these notes lowered their bets that the Fed would raise rates in September.
They still think there is a good chance of a rate increase by December.
Everything costs more than it used to, so prices staying high could still push the Fed to act.
Fighting involving Iran could also make oil more expensive, which might make inflation worse.
Next week, the Treasury will try to sell lots of new notes, and new inflation numbers will come out, so prices of these notes may keep jumping around.
U.S. employers unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, versus economists' forecast of 80,000 job gains.
Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year note dropping 4.35 basis points to 4.202%.
Traders cut September Fed rate hike odds to 44% from 55%, while December hike odds stand at 77%.
The unemployment rate eased to 4.1% as labor participation fell, and average hourly earnings rose 3.2% on the year.
The Treasury plans to sell $125 billion in coupon-bearing debt next week, with July consumer price inflation data also due.
- Who
- U.S. employers and the Labor Department's July jobs report, which surprised Federal Reserve watchers and bond traders.
- What
- U.S. Treasury yields fell after July payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000 jobs, cutting market odds of a September Fed rate hike to 44%.
- Where
- United States, with trading centered in New York.
- When
- Friday, August 7.
- Why
- Weak labor data reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, while traders also weighed oil-price risks from the Iran conflict and upcoming supply and inflation data.
Key facts
- July Nonfarm Payrolls
- -23,000 jobs (vs. 80,000 expected)
- Unemployment Rate
- 4.1%
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
- +3.2% (vs. 3.5% consensus)
- September Rate Hike Odds
- 44% (down from 55%)
- December Rate Hike Odds
- 77%
- 2-Year Treasury Yield
- 4.202% (low of 4.1536%)
- 10-Year Treasury Yield
- 4.656%
- Treasury Supply Next Week
- $125 billion coupon-bearing debt
Quotes
Tom di Galoma
Managing director of global rates trading at Mischler Financial Group
“This is a very weak labor market that's all of a sudden happened, it takes the Fed off the hiking table.”
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