2 weeks ago
Cloudy Yen Outlook Raises Bar for Japan's Earnings Beats
Many big companies in Japan, like car makers, camera makers, and medicine makers, sell their products to people in other countries.
When the yen, Japan's money, is weak, those companies earn more money.
This year, lots of Japanese companies announced they earned more money than people expected.
But investors, the people who buy parts of companies, did not get excited.
They are worried the government might make the yen stronger.
If the yen becomes stronger, companies might earn less money in the future.
Some companies, like camera maker Canon and medicine maker Takeda, actually saw their stock prices go down after sharing good news.
Smart investors say companies should focus on selling more and making better products, not just on the weak yen.
The Bank of Japan will have a big meeting in September to decide about money, and everyone will be watching.
Japanese companies have largely beaten profit estimates this reporting season, but investors are cautious and not all beats have translated into share price gains.
Firms beating estimates underperformed the MSCI Japan Index by 0.5% on average the day after results this year, versus a 1% outperformance a year earlier, Bloomberg Intelligence data shows.
Weakness in the yen has driven exporter earnings, with Honda Motor Co. reporting that forex added ¥91 billion to its first-quarter operating profit.
High-profile exporters including Canon Inc. and Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. saw their share prices fall after posting strong results.
Strategists warn future earnings upgrades will need stronger operating performance rather than favorable exchange-rate moves, with a Bank of Japan policy meeting due in September.
- Who
- Investors, Japanese exporters such as Honda Motor Co., Canon Inc. and Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., and strategists at Societe Generale, Bloomberg Intelligence and Polar Capital
- What
- A cautious market reaction to Japan's corporate earnings season as unpredictable yen moves raise doubts about profit growth fueled by currency weakness
- Where
- Japan
- When
- During the April-June earnings season and ahead of the Bank of Japan's September policy meeting
- Why
- Because yen weakness has driven earnings beats, and investors fear further intervention or faster interest rate hikes could strengthen the yen and hurt exporter profits
Yen Outlook Is a Broad Market Risk
Market Is Shifting Selectively, Not Slowing
Yen appreciation and Japanese equities
Yen Outlook Is a Broad Market Risk
Any sharp yen appreciation, such as that seen in summer 2024, would exert widespread downward pressure on Japanese equities, and more currency volatility would pressure stocks, especially automakers (Societe Generale's Frank Benzimra).
Market Is Shifting Selectively, Not Slowing
Growing investor selectivity points more to a shift in strategy than a broader headwind for Japan's market, and manufacturers with strong demand pipelines, such as chip-gear makers, should remain resilient even under a stronger yen (Polar Capital's Chris Smith).
Key facts
- Currency risk
- Yen volatility and possible further intervention to bolster the yen
- Earnings season
- April-June quarter, results largely exceeded analyst expectations
- Beat performance this year
- Underperformed MSCI Japan Index by 0.5% the day after results
- Beat performance last year
- Outperformed MSCI Japan Index by 1% the day after results
- Honda forex gain
- ¥91 billion added to first-quarter operating profit
- Stocks falling despite beats
- Canon Inc. and Takeda Pharmaceutical Co.
- Bank of Japan meeting
- Policy meeting scheduled in September
- Comparison shock
- Sharp yen appreciation in summer 2024
Quotes
Benzimra, Frank
Head of Asia equity strategy, Societe Generale
“"The mood is cautious now," said Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale. "The yen is certainly a risk to watch for the equity market."”
livemint.com
“"You’re going to see more and more questions on whether the BOJ should be tightening" ahead of its policy meeting in September.”
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