3 weeks ago
Japan Carmakers See Yen Staying Near Post-Intervention Levels
Japanese car companies like Toyota and Nissan sell cars all over the world.
When they bring their profits back to Japan, the strength of the yen matters a lot.
The yen recently became very weak, meaning one US dollar buys more yen than before.
The United States and Japan stepped in together to help stop the yen from falling further.
Japanese carmakers expect the yen to stay close to where it is now for the next year.
They made their financial plans based on the yen trading between 150 and 160 per dollar.
Toyota thinks it can earn extra money if the yen stays weak, thanks to strong hybrid car sales.
Nissan and Honda may not benefit as much because they are struggling to grow sales in the United States.
The companies worry that a sudden jump in the yen would quickly shrink their overseas profits.
That is why they set careful targets and work to build strength against currency swings.
Toyota, Nissan and other Japanese carmakers based their profit forecasts on the yen trading at ¥150-¥160 per dollar for the fiscal year through March 2027.
The US and Japan intervened jointly in currency markets for the first time since 2011 to support the yen.
The yen traded at about ¥157.7 per dollar as of Thursday, within the carmakers' assumed range.
Toyota, Honda and Suzuki revised their currency assumptions toward a weaker yen from May levels, while others left theirs unchanged.
Exchange-rate moves added roughly ¥345 billion to Toyota's first-quarter operating profit, and raising its full-year assumption to ¥160 could add about ¥420 billion more.
- Who
- Japanese carmakers including Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Suzuki and Mazda, along with US and Japanese authorities who intervened in currency markets.
- What
- Carmakers based their profit and sales outlooks on the yen remaining near current levels, at ¥150-¥160 per dollar, for the fiscal year through March 2027.
- Where
- Japan and the United States, in global currency markets.
- When
- As of Thursday, with forecasts covering the fiscal year through March 2027.
- Why
- Interest-rate differentials and capital flows continue to weigh on the yen, and carmakers view the US-Japan intervention as a brake on extreme moves rather than a fundamental shift in direction.
Carmakers' Expectation
Intervention's Purpose
Yen's future direction
Carmakers' Expectation
Carmakers and analysts expect the yen to remain weak near current levels, viewing the US-Japan intervention as a brake on extreme moves rather than a fundamental shift, given interest-rate differentials and capital flows.
Intervention's Purpose
The US and Japanese governments intervened to reverse the yen's slide, which they said was threatening to drive up inflation and import prices in Japan.
Who benefits from a weak yen
Carmakers' Expectation
Toyota is positioned to gain from a weak yen thanks to globally diversified earnings and strong hybrid demand, which helped it upgrade its profit outlook.
Intervention's Purpose
Nissan and Honda will find it harder to convert the weak yen into higher profits because they are struggling to grow US sales volume and face rising input costs.
Key facts
- Yen assumption
- ¥150-¥160 per dollar for fiscal year through March 2027
- Current yen rate
- About ¥157.7 per dollar as of Thursday
- Joint intervention
- First US-Japan currency market action since 2011
- Toyota Q1 currency impact
- Roughly ¥345 billion added to operating profit
- Toyota revised assumption
- Raised to ¥160 from ¥150, adding about ¥420 billion
- Assumption revisions
- Toyota, Honda and Suzuki moved toward a weaker yen; others unchanged
- Mazda's stance
- CFO Tetsuya Fujimoto stressed building strong resilience to currency fluctuations
Quotes
Tetsuya Fujimoto
Chief treasury and accounting officer at Mazda
“Japanese automakers seem to expect the yen to remain weak even after the recent US-Japan intervention, while keeping some buffer against yen appreciation and exchange‑rate volatility”
livemint.com
“We aren’t currency speculators, so we don’t try to guess where foreign exchange rates are heading. This doesn’t mean we will simply adjust this target whenever exchange rates move”
livemint.com
Sources
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