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Social Security and Medicare Shape 2026 Midterm Election Debate
Social Security gives money to many retired or disabled people, and Medicare helps pay healthcare costs.
Both programs are important to older Americans and to younger workers who may use them later.
New estimates say Social Security can pay all scheduled benefits from its combined trust funds until 2034.
Medicare Part A can pay all scheduled benefits until 2033.
These dates do not mean the programs will suddenly disappear.
They mean the programs may not have enough money to pay the full amounts promised under current law.
Medicare also has costs today, including premiums and deductibles.
Voters will choose members of Congress who may later decide how to address these financial challenges.
Social Security’s combined trust funds are projected to pay full scheduled benefits until 2034, after which income would cover about 83%.
Medicare’s Hospital Insurance trust fund is projected to pay full Part A benefits until 2033, after which income would cover about 89%.
Trust-fund depletion would not end either program, but current-law income would not cover all scheduled benefits.
The 2026 standard Medicare Part B premium is $202.90 monthly, while the annual deductible is $283.
An Alaska survey found Social Security and Medicare were major concerns for many older likely voters, though its results are not national.
- Who
- Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries, younger workers, voters, and members of Congress.
- What
- The 2026 elections are drawing attention to the programs’ projected financing gaps, benefits, and current healthcare costs.
- Where
- The debate concerns the United States; the cited voter survey was conducted in Alaska.
- When
- The issue concerns the 2026 midterm elections; projections cover trust-fund finances through 2032, 2033, and 2034.
- Why
- Both programs face projected gaps between continuing income and scheduled benefits under current law, while their costs affect household finances.
Key facts
- Social Security OASI projection
- The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund is projected to pay full scheduled benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032; continuing income would then cover about 78%.
- Combined Social Security projection
- The combined retirement and disability trust funds are projected to pay full scheduled benefits until the third quarter of 2034; continuing income would then cover about 83%.
- Medicare Part A projection
- The Hospital Insurance trust fund is projected to pay full scheduled Part A benefits until the second quarter of 2033; continuing income would then cover about 89%.
- 2026 Part B premium
- The standard Medicare Part B premium is $202.90 per month, up from $185 in 2025.
- 2026 Part B deductible
- The annual Part B deductible is $283, up from $257 in 2025.
- 2026 Part A deductible
- The Medicare Part A inpatient hospital deductible is $1,736, compared with $1,676 in 2025.
- Alaska voter survey
- An AARP survey of 800 likely voters aged 50 and older found that 78% rated Social Security extremely or very important, while 70% cited Medicare.
Sources
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