9 hrs ago
Prediction Markets Favor Democrats in 2026 Midterm Congress Control
The 2026 midterm elections will decide many seats in the United States Congress.
They are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Voters will choose representatives for all 435 House seats.
They will also vote for about one-third of the Senate.
Prediction markets currently give Democrats better odds of winning the House.
They also give Democrats an advantage in the Senate, although the contest appears closer.
These markets work by having people buy shares tied to possible election results.
President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen amid concerns about inflation, fuel prices, and the Iran war.
The United States midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, with 36 days remaining according to the article.
All 435 House seats and roughly one-third of the 100 Senate seats will be contested.
Polymarket and Kalshi give Democrats a strong advantage in the House, with reported odds of 93% and 91.6%, respectively.
Polymarket gives Democrats a 63% chance of winning the Senate, compared with 38% for Republicans.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found President Donald Trump's approval rating at 32%, amid cost-of-living concerns and opposition to the Iran war.
- Who
- Voters, the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, President Donald Trump, Polymarket, and Kalshi are central to the report.
- What
- The 2026 midterm elections will determine control of the House of Representatives and part of the Senate.
- Where
- Across the United States.
- When
- The elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026; the article says 36 days remained.
- Why
- The elections will test the Republican Party's performance under Donald Trump and determine the composition of Congress.
Key facts
- Election date
- November 3, 2026
- House seats
- All 435 seats are up for election
- Senate seats
- One-third of the 100 Senate seats are up for election
- House prediction markets
- Democrats were listed at 93% on Polymarket and 91.6% on Kalshi
- Senate prediction market
- Polymarket listed Democrats at 63% and Republicans at 38%
- Democrats Sweep market
- The outcome was trading at 61% on Polymarket's Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms market
- Trump approval rating
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll reported approval at 32%, his lowest stated political-career rating
Quotes
Polymarket
Prediction market platform explaining how its event contracts pay out
“Each share pays out $1 if the outcome resolves in its favour, and $0 if it does not.”
livemint.com
Sources
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