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India's Russian Crude Imports Fall as Refiners Diversify Supplies
India bought less oil from Russia in September than it had in recent months.
The amount was about 1.74 million barrels each day, the lowest since April.
However, India bought more oil overall because its refineries were running strongly.
Iraq and Saudi Arabia supplied more oil to help replace some Russian barrels.
India also bought oil from the United Arab Emirates, Africa, and Venezuela.
Kpler said concerns about pressure from the United States and other geopolitical risks influenced the changes.
This does not necessarily mean India has stopped buying Russian oil.
Instead, refiners are switching suppliers when prices, availability, shipping conditions, or political risks change.
India's Russian crude imports fell to about 1.74-1.75 million barrels per day in September, their lowest level since April.
Total Indian crude imports rose to about 5.3 million barrels per day, supported by stronger refinery activity.
Iraq and Saudi Arabia increased supplies to offset much of the decline in Russian crude.
Kpler said US pressure and geopolitical risks encouraged Indian refiners to keep sourcing options flexible.
African and Venezuelan supplies also contributed to diversification, while Russia remained a major part of India's crude mix.
- Who
- Indian refiners, Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia.
- What
- India reduced Russian crude imports while increasing overall crude imports and purchasing more from some Middle Eastern and other suppliers.
- Where
- India's crude-import market, involving supplies from Russia, the Middle East, Africa, and Venezuela.
- When
- In September, compared with August and July levels.
- Why
- Geopolitical risks, continued US pressure on buyers of Russian oil, supply availability, pricing, refinery compatibility, and shipping conditions influenced purchasing decisions.
Temporary Diversification
Greater Caution Toward Russian Oil
Meaning of the decline
Temporary Diversification
The lower Russian volumes reflect a flexible, temporary adjustment based on economics, availability, refinery compatibility, and logistics rather than a wholesale move away from Russian crude.
Greater Caution Toward Russian Oil
Continued US pressure and possible unilateral punitive measures could lead Indian refiners to become more cautious and reduce Russian purchases further.
Future Russian purchases
Temporary Diversification
Russia remains a major part of India's crude supply mix, and refiners may reduce rather than stop purchases while assessing market conditions.
Greater Caution Toward Russian Oil
Potential enforcement, waivers, and geopolitical uncertainty could make alternative suppliers more attractive during periods of heightened scrutiny.
Key facts
- Total crude imports
- About 5.3 million barrels per day in September.
- Russian crude imports
- About 1.74 million barrels per day in September, compared with 2.02 million in August and 2.65 million in July.
- Iraqi supply
- About 575,000 barrels per day in September, up from 163,000 in August.
- Saudi supply
- About 566,000 barrels per day in September, up from 347,000 in August.
- United Arab Emirates supply
- About 480,000 barrels per day in September, down from 546,000 in August.
- Middle Eastern imports
- Estimated at about 3 million barrels per day in September.
- Data source
- Ship-tracking and commodities analytics data from Kpler.
Quotes
Sumit Ritolia
Senior manager for modelling at Kpler
“The latest reduction in Russian volumes does not indicate a wholesale shift away from Russian crude, but Indian refiners could exercise greater caution if the US announces unilateral punitive measures targeting India over purchases of Russian oil”
deccanchronicle.com
“Overall, September highlights the flexibility of Indian refiners to switch between suppliers depending on economics, availability and geopolitical/logistical risks, while keeping crude imports elevated to support strong refinery utilisation,”
telegraphindia.com
Sources
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