3 hrs ago
Iran War Drives Diesel Supply Losses Beyond Trump’s Claims
Diesel is a fuel used by trucks, farms, ships, and other machines.
Its price has reached record levels.
Analysts say the war involving Iran has removed more diesel from the world market than the Russia-Ukraine war during the period studied.
Middle Eastern shipments were reduced by about 770,000 barrels each day from March through August.
Russian supply losses averaged about 350,000 barrels each day during those months.
Attacks on Russian refineries and a Russian export ban later made the shortage worse.
The White House says the Russia-Ukraine war is the main reason prices are high.
A ceasefire or repaired refineries could bring back some supplies, but analysts say the shortage would probably not disappear completely.
Energy analysts estimate the Iran conflict removed about 770,000 barrels of Middle Eastern diesel supply daily from March through August.
Russian diesel losses averaged roughly 350,000 barrels a day over the same period, though refinery attacks worsened in July and August.
Diesel prices surged as the Iran conflict restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and global inventories declined.
European diesel futures more than doubled early in the Iran war, while US diesel futures later reached an all-time record.
The White House attributes record diesel prices largely to the Russia-Ukraine war and says US energy production is helping offset pressures.
- Who
- The governments involved in the Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, along with global energy analysts, traders, refiners, and consumers.
- What
- Diesel supplies have fallen and prices have reached record levels, with estimates indicating that the Iran conflict caused a larger regional supply loss than the Russia-Ukraine conflict during the period studied.
- Where
- The supply disruptions affected global markets, including the Middle East, Russia, Europe, and the United States.
- When
- The estimates compare March through August with the same period in 2025; US diesel futures reached a record on Tuesday.
- Why
- Attacks, export restrictions, and reduced shipments through the Strait of Hormuz cut diesel supplies while global inventories were already declining.
Trump Administration
Analysts and Traders
Main cause of high diesel prices
Trump Administration
President Donald Trump says the Russia-Ukraine war is mostly responsible for the rise in global diesel prices.
Analysts and Traders
Estimates from Energy Aspects, Kpler, and Vortexa, reviewed with diesel traders, indicate that the Iran conflict removed more diesel supply than the Russia-Ukraine conflict during the period studied.
Effect of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire
Trump Administration
The White House says the Russia-Ukraine war has greatly contributed to record diesel prices, implying that ending attacks could provide relief.
Analysts and Traders
Analysts and traders say a halt to attacks and the return of Russian products would ease pressure but would not fully resolve the supply shortfall.
Role of Russian refinery damage
Trump Administration
The White House emphasizes the Russia-Ukraine war and the United States' oil production and exports as key factors in the energy market.
Analysts and Traders
Analysts acknowledge that attacks on Russian refineries and Russia's export ban worsened the shortage, but say Iran-related losses were the larger driver in pure volume terms.
Key facts
- Middle Eastern supply loss
- About 770,000 barrels per day from March through August compared with the same period in 2025.
- Russian supply loss
- About 350,000 barrels per day over the same comparison period.
- Russian losses in July-August
- About 615,000 barrels per day compared with July and August 2025.
- Russia's 2024 diesel exports
- About 930,000 barrels per day on average.
- Middle East's 2024 diesel exports
- About 1.7 million barrels per day on average.
- European diesel futures
- Rose by more than 100% during the early months of the Iran war.
- US diesel futures
- Settled at an all-time record on Tuesday.
Quotes
Rachel Ziemba
Adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
“Iran conflict-related shortages are the biggest driver of the diesel and product shortage and price spike, though damage to Russian refineries is exacerbating these trends.”
livemint.com
“The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran”
livemint.com
Eugene Lindell
Head of refined products at consultancy FGE NexantECA.
“In pure volumetric terms Iran is bigger. But, of course, prices are set at the margin. Taking hundreds of thousands of further barrels off the market turned a super tight market into a historically tight one.”
livemint.com
Sources
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