5 days ago
Iran War Drains Patriot Stocks, Raising NATO Defense Concerns
The United States has fewer Patriot missiles available in Europe than military planners would like.
Many missiles were sent to Ukraine, and the war with Iran used up even more.
Patriot systems try to stop very fast missiles before they hit their targets.
One US official worries that Europe could not handle a long Russian missile attack.
NATO says this description is too severe and that it still has enough defenses for its needs.
Europe has other air-defense systems, but they may not work as well against the fastest missiles.
The United States and Europe plan to make more Patriot interceptors.
Experts also say Russia might struggle to keep up a long attack against NATO while continuing its attacks on Ukraine.
US and NATO officials report low Patriot interceptor inventories in Europe, while NATO rejects claims that shortages are “beyond critical.”
The Iran war rapidly depleted US missile stocks after earlier, planned transfers of about 600 interceptors to Ukraine.
A US defense official said American forces in Europe could not withstand a sustained ballistic-missile attack and would have limited protection against even a single strike.
Europe has few alternatives to Patriot for intercepting Russia’s fastest ballistic missiles; France and Italy’s SAMP/T NG is still being developed and has not been battle-tested.
CSIS estimates the Iran conflict consumed about 65% of US Patriot stocks, while US and European production is expected to increase.
- Who
- The United States, NATO, European countries, Ukraine, Russia and Iran are involved; military officials and defense experts provided assessments.
- What
- US and NATO forces in Europe face low Patriot interceptor inventories and shortages of some other missiles, while NATO disputes the severity of the shortage.
- Where
- The shortage is affecting US and NATO forces in Europe, with related stockpile pressures in Ukraine and the Middle East.
- When
- During the ongoing war with Iran; the reports also reference a recent overnight Russian attack on Ukraine and longer-term concerns about Russia through 2030.
- Why
- Missiles were transferred to Ukraine and large numbers were used against Iranian drones and missiles, while production has not yet caught up with demand.
Concerned Officials and Experts
NATO and Pentagon Position
Severity of the shortage
Concerned Officials and Experts
A US defense official described Patriot inventories in Europe as “beyond critical,” and another NATO official confirmed that US and NATO forces have low stocks.
NATO and Pentagon Position
NATO spokesperson Col. Martin O’Donnell said it is “simply not the case” that Patriot supplies are beyond critical. The Pentagon also said it would not discuss stockpile levels, while a Pentagon spokesperson said the United States has what it needs for military operations.
Europe’s ability to withstand an attack
Concerned Officials and Experts
The US defense official said American forces in Europe could not withstand a sustained ballistic-missile attack and would have very limited capability even against a single strike or stray missile.
NATO and Pentagon Position
NATO says it has enough air-defense munitions to defend the alliance and continue donating munitions to Ukraine.
Risk from Russia
Concerned Officials and Experts
Experts warn that Europe has few systems able to stop Russia’s fastest ballistic missiles, which could be combined with large numbers of drones to overwhelm defenses.
NATO and Pentagon Position
Other experts say Russia faces its own constraints and would probably struggle to maintain a prolonged attack against NATO while continuing near-nightly attacks on Ukraine; a Russian assault is not considered imminent.
Key facts
- Most affected system
- Patriot missile interceptors, among the few systems described as capable of countering Russia’s high-speed ballistic missiles.
- Estimated US stock consumption
- The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the Iran conflict consumed about 65% of US Patriot stocks, or approximately 1,500 of 2,330 interceptors.
- Earlier Ukraine transfers
- The United States supplied Ukraine with around 600 Patriot interceptors during the Biden administration, according to Mark Cancian.
- Current production
- About 600 Patriot interceptors are expected to be produced this year, with a US target of 2,000 annually by 2030.
- European production
- NATO expects Europe’s first Patriot missile production facility to open in Germany in September, with deliveries potentially beginning early next year.
- Alternative system
- France and Italy’s SAMP/T NG is an alternative, but it has not been battle-tested; the current SAMP/T has a shorter range than Patriot.
- Russian constraints
- Experts cited in the reports say Russia may struggle to sustain a prolonged attack against NATO while continuing its frequent attacks against Ukraine.
Quotes
A US defence official in Europe
A US defence official in Europe speaking anonymously about sensitive military matters
“definitely do not have enough Patriots to withstand a sustained ballistic missile attack and would have “very limited” capability even against a single ballistic missile strike or a stray Russian missile.”
firstpost.com
Ed Arnold
Senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute
“possibly the best air defence that we have is Russian constraints.”
firstpost.com
Sources
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