51 mins ago
Europe Faces Renewed Winter Gas Price Shock Risk
Europe is getting ready for winter with less stored gas than it usually has.
Gas is used to heat homes and produce electricity.
If winter is very cold, countries will use their stored gas faster.
Europe may then need to buy more liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from the global market.
Asian countries may also want to buy more LNG, making competition stronger.
Disruptions near Middle Eastern shipping routes could reduce supplies further.
These problems could make gas and electricity more expensive.
Higher prices could also hurt factories, households and government budgets.
Prices may not rise as much if winter is mild or more gas becomes available.
European gas storage was about 69% full on September 17, below the five-year average of roughly 85%.
The benchmark European gas price reached about €81 per megawatt-hour, around 150% above its level a year earlier.
Cold weather, supply disruptions and stronger Asian LNG demand could force Europe to pay more for cargoes.
Europe’s increased reliance on global LNG has reduced dependence on Russian pipeline gas but increased competition with Asian buyers.
Analysts warn that prices could reach €100 per megawatt-hour, though mild weather and stronger supplies could limit the increase.
- Who
- European countries, LNG suppliers and competing Asian buyers are central to the situation; analysts from Morgan Stanley, Rystad Energy and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies provided assessments.
- What
- Europe is entering winter with below-average gas storage, increasing the risk of higher prices if demand rises or supplies are disrupted.
- Where
- The risk affects Europe, with particular pressure on Germany and the Netherlands, and is linked to LNG markets and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- When
- The storage and price figures cited are from September 17, while the potential effects concern the coming winter and possibly 2027 LNG restocking.
- Why
- Storage injections were slower than usual, while Europe faces stronger LNG competition, possible Middle Eastern shipping disruptions and uncertain winter weather.
Key facts
- European storage
- About 69% full on September 17, compared with a five-year average of around 85%.
- European benchmark price
- About €81 per megawatt-hour on September 17, approximately 150% higher than a year earlier.
- Germany’s storage
- Around 55% full according to Rystad Energy’s September 10 assessment.
- Potential price scenario
- Morgan Stanley warned prices could reach €100 per megawatt-hour, depending on winter weather.
- Storage concentration
- Germany and the Netherlands together account for about 35% of European Union storage capacity.
- LNG competition
- Europe now competes with Asian buyers after reducing reliance on Russian pipeline gas.
- Potential longer-term effect
- A normal cold winter could leave European storage heavily depleted and increase the need for LNG imports in 2027.
Sources
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