3 weeks ago
Gold Jumps on Weak US Jobs Data, Rate-Hike Hopes
Gold is a shiny metal that people like to buy when they are worried or when saving money gets less rewarding.
This week, the price of gold went up a lot—more than 8% in one week.
The big reason was a report that said fewer Americans had jobs last month than almost everyone expected.
That makes people think the central bank of the United States, called the Federal Reserve, will not make borrowing cost more.
Cheaper borrowing makes gold more attractive because gold doesn't pay interest like a bank account.
Another reason was news that Iran and Oman are close to an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
That is a very important waterway where ships carry oil to the world.
If oil flows smoothly again, prices could stay calm, which also makes it less likely the Fed will raise rates.
So investors bought more gold, pushing its price to the highest level in seven weeks.
Experts say people should buy gold when the price dips a little, rather than at the very top.
Gold posted a weekly gain of more than 8%, climbing to a seven-week high after weaker-than-expected US jobs data.
US payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, the first monthly decline in five months, versus expectations of about 80,000 new jobs.
A US official said talks between Iran and Oman have progressed and could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the restoration of oil exports.
Markets trimmed the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to about 44% from roughly 58%, pressuring the dollar and Treasury yields.
Experts advised a buy-on-dips strategy for gold, citing support at ₹1,49,400 and COMEX support at $4,350, with resistance at $4,450 per ounce.
- Who
- Gold investors, the US Federal Reserve, and Iran and Oman, which are in talks over the Strait of Hormuz.
- What
- Gold climbed to a seven-week high with a weekly gain of more than 8% after weak US jobs data and progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
- Where
- Global financial markets, driven by US economic data and the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman.
- When
- This week, following Friday's US employment report for July.
- Why
- Weaker US jobs data and the prospect of restored oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz lowered odds of a rate hike, pushing down the dollar and Treasury yields and boosting demand for gold.
Key facts
- Gold weekly gain
- More than 8%, reaching a seven-week high
- July US payrolls
- Lost 23,000 jobs vs ~80,000 expected; first decline in five months
- Strait of Hormuz
- US expects Iran-Oman agreement to reopen waterway and restore oil exports soon
- September Fed hike odds
- Fell to ~44% from ~58% before the jobs report
- 10-year Treasury yield
- Eased to ~4.60% from an intraday high of 4.68%
- COMEX gold levels
- Support at $4,350; resistance at $4,450 per ounce
- MCX October gold futures
- Ended week near ₹1,52,000
- Unemployment rate
- Edged down to 4.1%
Quotes
Ponmudi R
CEO of Enrich Money, a financial advisory firm
“Gold prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to US inflation data, Federal Reserve communication, Treasury yields, the US dollar, and developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The weaker US labour‑market data has strengthened the near‑term fundamental backdrop for gold and silver, and any further decline in Treasury yields or the dollar could provide additional support for bullion.”
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Anuj Gupta
SEBI‑registered market expert
“Cooling crude oil prices are putting pressure on the US treasury yields and the US Dollar, as a smooth supply of crude oil prices is expected to contain inflation, and hence the US Fed rate hike looks unlikely in such a scenario.”
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