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Gold, silver jump as US-Iran de-escalation hopes boost prices
Gold and silver got more expensive on Tuesday and Wednesday.
This happened because people think the United States and Iran might stop fighting soon.
If they make peace, oil prices could go down, and that makes it less likely the US central bank will raise interest rates.
Higher interest rates make gold and silver less attractive, so when a rate hike seems less likely, prices climb.
The dollar also got weaker, and that makes gold cheaper for people using other money.
American officials said a deal to reopen an important waterway, the Strait of Hormuz, could happen very soon.
Iran is also talking with Oman about making the waterway safe again.
Gold reached about $4,325 per ounce in one market.
The metals are also getting more expensive in India.
But this is not the first time people hoped for peace, so prices may keep jumping around.
Comex gold rose $61 to an intraday high of $4,151 per troy ounce on Tuesday, 4 August, and gained another $173 to $4,325 on Wednesday, 5 August.
Comex silver climbed to $60.24 per ounce on Tuesday and extended gains by $2.74 to reach $63 per troy ounce on Wednesday.
Prices rallied on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran, including a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz could be reached "today or tomorrow," echoing President Donald Trump's comments.
A weaker US dollar (index below 99.8, a seven-week low) and lower crude oil prices supported the precious metals rally, while the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike fell to 57%.
- Who
- Investors and traders in gold and silver futures markets, alongside US President Donald Trump, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baqaei, who commented on the diplomatic efforts.
- What
- Gold and silver prices surged for a second consecutive session, with Comex gold rising to $4,325 and Comex silver reaching $63 per troy ounce, boosted by US-Iran de-escalation hopes.
- Where
- International commodity markets (Comex), India's MCX futures market, and the Middle East, where US-Iran and Iran-Oman negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz are underway.
- When
- Tuesday, 4 August, and Wednesday, 5 August (during the news cycle), following weekend events and Trump's Monday comments.
- Why
- Hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran eased inflation concerns, lowered crude oil prices, weakened the US dollar, and reduced expectations of higher Federal Reserve interest rates, supporting demand for precious metals.
Diplomatic breakthrough imminent
De-escalation hopes fragile
Prospect of a Strait of Hormuz deal
Diplomatic breakthrough imminent
An agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within hours or days, as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could come "today or tomorrow" and President Trump said the waterway could reopen as early as Wednesday. Iran-Oman negotiations are reportedly progressing positively at technical and political levels.
De-escalation hopes fragile
This is not the first time de-escalation hopes have emerged; similar optimism has surfaced several times since the conflict began in late February, only for tensions to escalate again, so the latest rally may not be sustainable.
Driver of the gold and silver rally
Diplomatic breakthrough imminent
Gold and silver are rallying as safe-haven assets because investors worry about geopolitical uncertainty and buy precious metals for protection.
De-escalation hopes fragile
The rally is actually tied to falling crude oil prices and a weaker US dollar, which lower inflation concerns and reduce the pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates — the key factor supporting non-yielding metals.
Federal Reserve policy path
Diplomatic breakthrough imminent
Inflation pressures are on track to ease gradually, so the Fed may be closer to pausing or ending rate hikes; rate-hike odds for September have fallen to 57%.
De-escalation hopes fragile
An increasing number of policymakers back the possibility of another rate hike due to persistent inflation risks from Middle East tensions and strong AI investment, and the Fed has said it will not hesitate to hike if inflation does not ease.
Key facts
- Comex gold price (Tue)
- Up $61 to $4,151 per troy ounce (intraday high)
- Comex gold price (Wed)
- Up $173 to $4,325 per troy ounce, highest since mid-June
- Comex silver price (Tue)
- Up $2.35 to $60.24 per troy ounce
- Comex silver price (Wed)
- Up $2.74 to $63 per troy ounce
- MCX gold futures
- Climbed ₹5,000-odd to ₹148,889 per 10 grams; earlier up ₹1,509 to ₹1,44,424
- MCX silver futures
- Up ₹7,285 per kg to ₹228,900 (cumulative two-day gain ~₹12,000)
- US dollar index
- Below 99.8, weakest level in seven weeks
- September Fed rate-hike probability
- Implied probability fell to 57%
Quotes
Scott Bessent
U.S. Treasury Secretary
““an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached ‘today or tomorrow.’”
livemint.com
““the strategic waterway could reopen within hours.””
livemint.com
Esmail Baqaei
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson
“Tehran was working closely with Muscat to develop the necessary framework for future shipping arrangements”
livemint.com
“discussions were advancing positively at both the technical and political levels”
livemint.com
Sources
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