2 weeks ago
July Fed Minutes May Shape September Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve decided not to change interest rates at its July meeting.
Some policymakers wanted rates to go up, so the decision was not unanimous.
Investors are waiting for the meeting minutes to learn more about that disagreement.
Earlier, markets thought a September rate hike was fairly likely.
That expectation fell after a weak jobs report.
Inflation has eased a little, but higher oil prices could make prices rise again.
The Fed is also giving fewer clues about what it may do next.
New jobs and inflation data will help determine whether rates stay the same in September.
The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during its July 28-29 meeting.
Three of 12 policymakers voted for a rate increase, revealing disagreement within the committee.
Markets cut the perceived chance of a September rate hike from 65% at the July meeting to 35% on August 18.
July inflation cooled slightly, but oil prices above $91 could renew inflation pressure.
Investors are watching upcoming economic data, bond yields, oil prices, and signals from the Jackson Hole symposium.
- Who
- The Federal Open Market Committee, led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and investors monitoring U.S. monetary policy.
- What
- The July FOMC minutes will provide details about the unchanged interest-rate decision and the possibility of a September rate hike.
- Where
- The decision concerns U.S. monetary policy; the Fed’s annual symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
- When
- The minutes are scheduled for release on August 19; the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15-16.
- Why
- Markets are assessing the effects of a divided policy vote, weaker jobs data, cooling inflation, and rising oil prices on future rates.
Case for Further Rate Hikes
Case for Holding Rates Steady
Inflation risks
Case for Further Rate Hikes
Some policymakers may favor higher rates because inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising oil prices could add new pressure.
Case for Holding Rates Steady
Headline and core inflation both declined in July, which could support waiting for more evidence before raising rates.
Labor-market evidence
Case for Further Rate Hikes
A rate increase could be viewed as necessary if policymakers believe inflation risks require tighter policy despite economic weakness.
Case for Holding Rates Steady
The weak jobs report has reduced expectations for an immediate hike, and the Fed may prefer to study additional labor-market data.
September outlook
Case for Further Rate Hikes
Three of the 12 voters supported a July rate hike, showing that a hawkish faction remains within the committee.
Case for Holding Rates Steady
Markets now assign only a 35% chance to a September hike, and the article says rates are likely to remain unchanged unless incoming data changes the outlook dramatically.
Key facts
- July rate decision
- The federal funds rate remained at 3.5%-3.75%.
- July meeting
- The FOMC met on July 28-29.
- Minutes release
- The minutes are scheduled for August 19.
- September hike probability
- CME FedWatch showed a 35% probability of a September rate hike on August 18, down from 65% at the July meeting.
- July inflation
- Headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 2.5%.
- Oil prices
- Oil prices exceeded $91 on August 18.
- Remaining 2026 meetings
- The article identifies September, October, and December as the remaining FOMC meetings in 2026.
Sources
Related news
Warsh Signals Possible Rate Hikes as Inflation Stays Above Target
US CPI Aftermath: Equities, Gold React; September Rate Hike Uncertain
US Inflation Cools to 3.4% as Fed Weighs September Rates
Warsh Weighs Rate Cut as Inflation Keeps Pressure High
Dollar near two-month low as US inflation data awaited
Why Kevin Warsh’s First Jackson Hole Speech Matters
Chevron Plans $7 Billion Venezuela Expansion Amid U.S. Oil Push
Saudi Arabia Says Iranian Tanker Attack Killed Two Sailors
U.S.-Iran Exchange Escalates Across Middle East, Markets Slide
Trump Aides Seek Quiet Iran War Before Midterm Elections
US Warns Middle East Travelers Amid Escalating Iran-Linked Tensions
