2 weeks ago
US Inflation Cools to 3.4% as Fed Weighs September Rates
Prices for things we buy go up every year, and that is called inflation.
The government checks how much prices go up and said that in July they went up 3.4% compared to a year ago.
That is less than before, so inflation is cooling down.
Prices for food and gas change quickly, so experts also look at a special number without them, which went up 2.5%.
The Federal Reserve is the group that tries to keep prices from rising too fast.
Right now it is keeping its interest rate the same, which makes borrowing money more expensive and helps slow price increases.
Some people at the Fed think prices are still too high and want to raise the rate again.
Others think prices are easing and the Fed should wait.
Traders, who bet on what the Fed will do, mostly think the rate will stay the same at the next meeting in mid-September.
But they still think there is a good chance it could go up before the end of the year.
The consumer price index rose 3.4% in the 12 months through July, matching economist expectations for a second straight month of cooling inflation.
Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 2.5% year over year in July, easing from 2.6% in June.
The Federal Reserve has held rates in a 3.50%-3.75% range since December after a 9-3 vote last month to stand pat.
A sharp drop in hotel prices drove much of the monthly core easing, while technology prices jumped on artificial intelligence demand.
Traders increased bets on no change at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting, yet still price a more than one-in-three chance of a rate hike.
- Who
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the report, while Federal Reserve policymakers led by Chairman Kevin Warsh weigh the next rate decision.
- What
- US consumer inflation cooled to 3.4% in July, and the Fed is deciding whether to hold or raise interest rates at its September meeting.
- Where
- United States
- When
- The report was published August 12, 2026, and the Fed's decision is due at its September 15-16 meeting.
- Why
- Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, prompting debate over whether current policy is tight enough.
Doves: Hold Rates Steady
Hawks: Raise Rates Now
September rate decision
Doves: Hold Rates Steady
New York Fed chief John Williams expects inflation to keep easing, and market traders now favor leaving rates unchanged at the September meeting.
Hawks: Raise Rates Now
July's dissenters and other Fed bank presidents argue inflation is still too high, making the case for a rate hike.
Inflation outlook
Doves: Hold Rates Steady
CPI cooling for a second straight month shows the easing trend is underway and policy is working.
Hawks: Raise Rates Now
Core goods price increases broadened and technology prices jumped on AI demand, signaling inflation pressures are still spreading.
Key facts
- July CPI (year-over-year)
- 3.4%
- Core CPI, July (year-over-year)
- 2.5%
- Core CPI, June (year-over-year)
- 2.6%
- Fed inflation target
- 2% (PCE measure)
- Fed policy rate target range
- 3.50%-3.75%
- Latest Fed vote on rates
- 9-3 to hold
- Next Fed meeting
- September 15-16, 2026
- Reporting agency
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
Quotes
John Williams
Chief of the New York Federal Reserve Bank
“I expect inflation to continue to ease”
thehindubusinessline.com
Olu Sonola
Head of U.S. economics at Fitch Ratings
“Without forward guidance, the September decision will likely remain a close call until the very end. It will not be a slam dunk: whether it is a hold or a hike, both hawks and doves will find enough in the data to make their case.”
thehindubusinessline.com










