Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 1 hr ago
UK supermarket suppliers face concentrated climate risks, analysis finds
Climate pressures are putting UK food supplies at risk, after droughts and heatwaves affected farm production across the UK and Europe.
An analysis examined nearly 3,000 producers around the world that supply own-brand foods to the UK’s 10 largest supermarkets.
Flooding could cause £322m in average annual losses across those suppliers, with further disruption possible if transport or power networks are affected.
A small share of sites accounts for most projected flood losses: 2% of global sites account for half, while 9% account for 80%.
The analysis also projects 26% to 49% more hot days at UK supplier sites by 2050, adding pressure on workers, cooling, power and distribution.
The findings point to targeting resilience efforts at the suppliers and locations most exposed to climate risks.
An analysis found that climate risks to UK supermarket supply chains are concentrated in a relatively small share of supplier sites.
Flooding across the supplier portfolio could cause projected average annual losses of £322 million.
Half of the projected flood losses come from 2% of global supplier sites, while 9% account for 80%.
Across UK supplier sites, the number of hot days is projected to rise by 26% to 49% by 2050.
The analysis covered nearly 3,000 producers supplying private-label foods to the UK’s 10 largest supermarkets.
- Who
- SmartResilience analysed supplier sites serving the UK’s 10 largest supermarkets.
- What
- The analysis assessed exposure to climate risks, including flooding, heat and water stress.
- When
- Published on 13 October 2026. Heat projections cover the period to 2050.
- Where
- Supplier sites around the world, including sites in the UK.
- Why
- To identify concentrated climate risks and help businesses target resilience measures.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
A study published in Nature estimated that climate change had reduced global agricultural productivity by 21% since 1961 compared with a no-climate-change scenario.
UK farms produced 25 million fewer pints of milk.
The Met Office confirmed that the UK had experienced its hottest summer.
edie published the analysis of climate risks across supermarket suppliers.
- Supplier coverage
- Nearly 3,000 named producers
- Supermarkets covered
- UK’s top 10
- Projected average annual flood losses
- £322 million
- Global sites driving half of projected flood losses
- 2%
- Global sites driving 80% of projected flood losses
- 9%
- Projected increase in hot days at UK supplier sites by 2050
- 26% to 49%
Sources
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