Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 5 hrs ago
A 1960 population study predicted a Doomsday date in November 2026
A 1960 study by physicist Heinz von Foerster and colleagues projected that the world’s population would grow so rapidly it would approach infinity on 13 November 2026.
The authors described this as a Doomsday prediction, but it was based on population trends from the previous two millennia.
The study’s population projections remained accurate until the 1990s, when birth rates began to fall.
The United Nations now forecasts that the global population will peak at about 10.3 billion in 2084 and then decline.
This means the old prediction does not reflect current population trends.
Some economists now warn that low fertility could bring economic stagnation and put greater pressure on healthcare systems.
The study was written during the Cold War, when people feared catastrophe from resource shortages and nuclear weapons.
Current concerns include global war, climate change and artificial intelligence, but the study itself gives no updated Doomsday forecast.
A 1960 population study predicted that the world’s population would approach infinity on 13 November 2026.
The study was written by physicist Heinz von Foerster and researchers from the University of Illinois.
Its prediction was based on historical population growth trends that the paper described as hyper-exponential.
Population growth has since slowed, and United Nations projections suggest the global population will peak at around 10.3 billion in 2084.
The article also reports that the Doomsday Clock is at 85 seconds to midnight, its closest point to midnight.
- Who
- Heinz von Foerster and researchers from the University of Illinois wrote the study.
- What
- The study predicted that the world’s population would approach infinity on 13 November 2026.
- When
- The paper was published in 1960 and predicted 13 November 2026.
- Where
- The paper was published in the journal Science. The researchers were from the University of Illinois.
- Why
- The study analysed historical demographic trends and concluded that population growth was hyper-exponential.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
At this date human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has grown in the last two millennia.
Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve. They will be squeezed to death.
Our current trajectory is unsustainable.
National leaders – particularly those in the United States, Russia, and China – must take the lead in finding a path away from the brink. Citizens must insist they do so.
A paper in Science predicted that the human population would approach infinity if it continued growing as it had over the previous two millennia.
The paper’s predictions about global population remained accurate until this decade, according to the article.
The Doomsday Clock was unveiled at 85 seconds to midnight.
The date the 1960 study predicted the world’s population would approach infinity.
- Publication year
- 1960
- Journal
- Science
- Predicted date
- 13 November 2026
- Study author
- Heinz von Foerster
- Projected population peak
- Around 10.3 billion in 2084
- Doomsday Clock
- 85 seconds to midnight
Sources
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