Business · Energy & Commodities · 1 day ago
Argonaut remains optimistic on lithium despite recent price falls
Lithium prices and shares have fallen in recent months after a rebound earlier in 2026 lost momentum.
Argonaut research head Hayden Bairstow says the recent weakness is partly seasonal, as demand slows around China’s Golden Week holiday.
He expects spodumene prices to move up and down in the coming months, while forecasting higher average prices over the longer term.
Lithium demand comes mainly from electric vehicles and battery storage systems.
Battery storage demand has grown quickly, but can arrive in bursts from different countries, adding to price swings.
Bairstow says these fluctuations do not change the sector’s longer-term outlook.
Argonaut also raised its long-term copper price forecast by 9% and named Kantra Copper among its preferred producers.
Argonaut remains positive on lithium despite a recent fall in prices, according to its head of research, Hayden Bairstow.
Spot prices for lithium carbonate and spodumene fell 25% in the past month and are now below US$1,700 a tonne.
Bairstow said seasonal weakness around China’s Golden Week holiday does not change the sector’s longer-term outlook.
Argonaut expects spodumene prices to fluctuate in the months ahead and forecasts an average of US$2,498 a tonne in FY31.
Battery storage and electric vehicles are two main sources of lithium demand, though battery storage demand has come in spikes.
- Who
- Argonaut executive director and head of research Hayden Bairstow.
- What
- Argonaut remains optimistic about lithium despite recent price falls.
- When
- The article was published on October 11, 2026; prices fell in the past month.
- Where
- The market weakness is linked to seasonal demand around China’s Golden Week holiday.
- Why
- Bairstow says the decline reflects seasonal weakness and volatility, not a change in the sector’s longer-term outlook.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Lithium stocks have been hit as a rebound in chemical and spodumene prices began to deflate.
Spot prices for lithium carbonate and spodumene fell 25%.
Seasonal weakness in demand coincided with China’s Golden Week holiday.
China was due to resume trading after the holiday.
- Lithium spot prices
- Lithium carbonate and spodumene fell 25% in the past month and are below US$1,700/t.
- FY26 spodumene forecast
- US$1,570/t average.
- FY31 spodumene forecast
- US$2,498/t average.
- Battery storage demand
- Lithium demand from battery energy storage systems was 51% higher in 2025, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
- PLS Group shares
- Down 14% year to date, despite resuming dividend payments this year.
What people are saying
nothing that really changes the ultimate thematic.
Everyone seems to forget that demand is seasonal.
China starts trading again on Friday and we’ll be back into normality really.
Sources
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