Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 6 hrs ago
Study finds disinformation can sharply weaken climate policies
Researchers modeled how voters and governments might set a tax on carbon dioxide emissions.
In the model, informed voters supported a stronger tax than a cautious government, leading to less warming.
The simulated population began evenly divided between people who understood climate damage and people who underestimated it.
Learning and visible damage increased the informed share, while disinformation reduced it.
If informed people fell below half, the voter-backed tax dropped sharply because the decisive middle voter was then misinformed.
In one modeled case, a disinformation campaign lasting 30 years reduced the average voter-set tax over the first 50 years from $25.70 to $10 per metric ton of carbon dioxide.
The government-set tax under the same pressure averaged $12.90, as its response weakened more gradually.
The study used a simulation rather than real elections or tax changes, and its results suggest that public understanding can affect the strength of climate policy.
A new economic model found that informed voters could support stronger climate policies than a cautious government.
The advantage weakened sharply when disinformation reduced the informed share of voters below half.
In a simulation without disinformation, majority voting produced a higher average carbon tax and lower peak warming than government decision-making.
A disinformation campaign lasting through the first 30 years cut the simulated average tax under majority voting from $25.70 to $10 per metric ton of carbon dioxide.
The study was built by Katsiaryna Bahamazava of University College Dublin and Stanley Reznik of the ILaVita Foundation.
- Who
- Researchers Katsiaryna Bahamazava and Stanley Reznik built the model.
- What
- The study examined how disinformation can weaken climate policies, including carbon taxes.
- When
- Published on 2026-10-11. The model simulated 300 years in five-year steps.
- Where
- The model represented the world economy. Bahamazava is affiliated with University College Dublin; Reznik’s foundation has research offices in Turin and New York.
- Why
- The study examined how public understanding of climate damage affects support for stronger policies.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
As long as informed voters remain the majority, the median voter backs the ambitious policy, producing stronger early mitigation and lower peak warming
This story does not have a timeline yet.
- Model duration
- 300 years, in five-year steps
- True damage setting
- 5.4°F (3°C) of warming cuts economic output by 9%
- Average tax without disinformation
- $25.70 per metric ton of carbon dioxide under majority voting in the first 50 years
- Average tax after disinformation
- $10 per metric ton under majority voting when disinformation lasted through the first 30 years
- Study authors
- Katsiaryna Bahamazava and Stanley Reznik
Sources
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