Politics · Mexico · 2 hrs ago
Mexico's 2027 income plan relies more on taxes as oil revenue falls
Mexico’s 2027 income bill forecasts a shift from oil to taxes as a source of public money.
It estimates oil revenue at 984.5 billion pesos, down 14.4% in real terms from the projected 2026 figure.
The forecast reflects lower expected oil prices and a stronger peso, which reduces the value of oil sales made in dollars.
Tax revenue is projected to reach 6.26 trillion pesos, or 15.9% of GDP, a record share.
The bill says taxes would provide 58.8% of public income, while borrowing would exceed oil revenue.
Officials say the plan aims to fund public spending without creating new taxes or raising general tax rates, and includes measures targeting tax evasion involving fuel.
The committee approved the bill by 28 votes to eight, and the full Chamber of Deputies will debate and vote on it.
Mexico’s 2027 income plan expects oil revenue to fall by 14.4% in real terms from the estimated 2026 level.
Tax revenue is forecast to rise to a historic high of 15.9% of gross domestic product, up from 15.4% in 2026.
The draft estimates oil revenue at 984.5 billion pesos and tax revenue at 6.26 trillion pesos in 2027.
The plan was approved by the Chamber of Deputies’ Finance Commission and sent to the full chamber for discussion and a vote.
The draft does not propose new taxes or increases to general tax rates.
- Who
- Mexico’s government, with the draft considered by the Chamber of Deputies’ Finance Commission.
- What
- The 2027 income plan forecasts lower oil revenue and higher tax revenue.
- When
- For 2027; the Finance Commission approved the draft before its publication on October 13, 2026.
- Where
- Mexico.
- Why
- The plan cites lower expected international oil prices and a lower exchange-rate estimate for the decline in oil revenue; it aims to secure public funds through stronger tax collection.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Oil revenue is estimated at 1.15 trillion pesos, or 3.0% of GDP, and the Mexican oil mix price at 78.4 dollars per barrel.
Gari Flores told the Finance Commission that tax revenues had become the backbone of public spending.
The Finance Commission approved the draft without reservations by 28 votes to eight and sent it to the full chamber.
Oil revenue is projected at 984.5 billion pesos, or 2.5% of GDP, while tax revenue is forecast at 6.26 trillion pesos, or 15.9% of GDP.
- Oil revenue forecast
- 984.5 billion pesos in 2027
- Oil revenue change
- 14.4% real decrease from estimated 2026 level
- Tax revenue forecast
- 6.26 trillion pesos in 2027
- Tax share of GDP
- 15.9% in 2027, up from 15.4% in 2026
- Finance Commission vote
- 28 in favor, eight against
What people are saying
tax revenues are the backbone of public spending.
The main objective is to ensure the resources needed for the country’s economic and social development, strengthening collection through administrative efficiency, tax compliance, and the fight against evasion and avoidance.
Sources
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