IMF expects slower growth and high inflation in Spain in 2027

The IMF expects Spain’s economy to slow as the next government takes office after the November 29 election.

Growth is forecast to fall from 2.5% to 1.8% in 2027, below the 2% potential growth rate estimated by Spain’s economy minister.

Per-person income growth is forecast at just 0.8% in 2027, below the eurozone average for the first time since the pandemic rebound.

The IMF expects prices to rise by 2.7% in 2027, while the Bank of Spain’s forecast is closer to 4%.

Unemployment is expected to remain near 10% in 2027 after reaching 9.8% at the end of 2026.

The IMF says Spain’s jobless rate could stay near that level until 2031 if policies do not change, compared with 6% for the eurozone average.

Spain is still forecast to run a current-account surplus of 2%, but the outlook points to slower growth and little job-market progress.