Business · Economy · 1 day ago
Strong El Niño may keep Brazilian food prices under pressure until February
Brazil’s inflation rose 0.82% in September, and food and drink prices increased 0.83%.
Food bought for home use rose 0.96%, reversing declines in July and August.
Tomato and potato prices rose sharply, adding to pressure on grocery costs.
Economist Flávio Serrano said a strengthening El Niño is a key reason for the increase and could keep home food prices under pressure until February.
El Niño is a climate pattern that affects weather, and this episode is expected to be particularly strong.
Higher food prices matter because they add to the cost of living, while services inflation is also still elevated.
Serrano said Brazil’s central bank may still cut its main interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, but inflation pressures call for caution; any decision has not been stated.
Brazil’s food prices may remain under pressure until February because of a strong El Niño, economist Flávio Serrano said.
Brazil’s broad consumer price index rose 0.82% in September, while food and beverages prices increased 0.83%.
Food consumed at home rose 0.96% in September, after falling in July and August.
Serrano said the El Niño could bring Pacific temperatures about 3 degrees or more above average.
- Who
- Economist Flávio Serrano warned that food prices could stay under pressure.
- What
- A strong El Niño may keep Brazilian food prices elevated until February.
- When
- The warning was reported on October 10, 2026; the pressure may persist until February of the following year.
- Where
- Brazil; the climate phenomenon involves temperature deviations in the Pacific.
- Why
- Serrano attributed the expected pressure to the effects of El Niño on food prices.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The whole part of food consumed at home should remain under pressure at least until February next year because of these climate effects.
It will probably be the historical record for the temperature difference in that region.
We also observe some elements that show a little pressure on the demand side.
Food consumed at home fell 1.14%.
Food consumed at home fell 0.60%.
Brazil’s broad consumer price index rose 0.82%, while food and beverages prices increased 0.83%.
Serrano said food consumed at home should remain under pressure because of climate effects.
- September IPCA
- Up 0.82%
- September food and beverages
- Up 0.83%
- September food consumed at home
- Up 0.96%
- Tomato and potato prices
- Rose by more than 20% and 30%, respectively
- El Niño temperature deviation
- About 3 degrees or more above the average in the Pacific
Sources
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