Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 1 day ago
Nobel prediction model ranked medicine laureate second but missed chemistry winner
A mathematical model developed by Nikkei tried to identify researchers likely to win Nobel Prizes in the natural sciences.
It assessed candidates in physiology or medicine and chemistry using records of 146 major science awards.
The model used six measures, including how many awards a researcher had won and how long it had been since their latest award.
In physiology or medicine, the candidate ranked second went on to receive the 2026 prize.
But the model did not predict the chemistry prize for Kenzo Goh, an emeritus professor at Tokyo University of Science.
The results show that award records can point to likely winners, but do not identify every laureate in advance.
The available information does not say what changes, if any, will be made to the model.
Nikkei’s model ranked the eventual 2026 physiology or medicine laureate second in its advance prediction.
The model did not foresee the chemistry award going to Kenzo [name in Japanese: 硤合憲三], an emeritus professor at Tokyo University of Science.
Nikkei reviewed the model’s predictions for the 2026 natural sciences Nobel prizes.
The model uses six indicators drawn from researchers’ records of major science awards.
- Who
- Nikkei developed the model; it assesses researchers as potential Nobel laureates.
- What
- The model ranked the eventual physiology or medicine laureate second but missed the chemistry laureate.
- When
- The predictions were made before the 2026 prizes; the review was published on October 10, 2026 UTC.
- Where
- The chemistry laureate is an emeritus professor at Tokyo University of Science.
- Why
- The model uses award records and other indicators to assess researchers’ chances of receiving natural sciences Nobel prizes.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
No direct quotes in the coverage so far.
Nikkei’s model made advance predictions for the natural sciences prizes.
Nikkei published a review of the model’s predictions.
- Science awards analyzed
- 146
- Model indicators
- 6
- Physiology or medicine prediction
- The eventual laureate ranked second
- Chemistry prediction
- The model did not foresee the award to a Tokyo University of Science emeritus professor named 硤合憲三 in the source.
Sources
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