1 hr ago
US Sees Taiwan Invasion Unlikely Before 2028 Despite 2027 Goal
US officials think China is unlikely to invade Taiwan before 2028.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has wanted the military to be ready to attack Taiwan by 2027 if necessary.
The 2027 date is about military readiness, not a definite invasion plan.
Officials say corruption investigations have slowed some Chinese military preparations.
China also wants to see the result of Taiwan’s 2028 election.
If the Democratic Progressive Party or President Lai Ching-te wins again, China may become more willing to use force.
Taiwan says its people should decide the island’s future.
The United States supports Taiwan with weapons even though it does not have formal diplomatic ties with the island.
China says it prefers peaceful reunification but has not ruled out using force.
US officials say a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely.
China’s 2027 benchmark is viewed as a military-readiness target, not a confirmed invasion date.
Anti-corruption investigations and purges have delayed aspects of China’s military preparations.
Beijing is expected to watch Taiwan’s 2028 election, especially if the DPP or Lai Ching-te remains in power.
US officials say China still prefers peaceful reunification but may consider force if political conditions worsen.
- Who
- US officials, China, Taiwan, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, and the Democratic Progressive Party.
- What
- US officials assess that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is increasingly unlikely before 2028, despite a 2027 Chinese military-readiness goal.
- Where
- Across the Taiwan Strait, involving China, Taiwan, and potential US involvement.
- When
- The assessment concerns the period before 2028; China’s military-readiness benchmark is 2027 and Taiwan’s next election is in 2028.
- Why
- Military-readiness delays linked to China’s anti-corruption campaign and Beijing’s interest in Taiwan’s 2028 election are cited as major reasons.
US and Taiwan Assessment
China’s Position and Potential Response
Timing of military action
US and Taiwan Assessment
US officials say China is unlikely to invade before 2028 because military preparations have been delayed and Beijing wants to see Taiwan’s election outcome.
China’s Position and Potential Response
China has not ruled out using force and continues to seek military capabilities for taking Taiwan by force if necessary.
Taiwan’s political future
US and Taiwan Assessment
Taiwan’s government says only its people can decide the island’s future, while the DPP supports Taiwan’s separate identity from China.
China’s Position and Potential Response
China considers Taiwan part of its territory and calls reunification a matter of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Preferred method
US and Taiwan Assessment
US officials say China still prefers to obtain control of Taiwan without force, according to the US intelligence assessment cited in the reports.
China’s Position and Potential Response
Beijing says it supports peaceful cross-strait development and reunification but may look more seriously at force after 2028 if the DPP remains in power.
Key facts
- Invasion assessment
- US officials believe an invasion before 2028 is increasingly unlikely.
- 2027 benchmark
- The benchmark is understood as a target for military capability, not a confirmed invasion timeline.
- Taiwan election
- Beijing is expected to assess the outcome of Taiwan’s 2028 election.
- Potential escalation
- Officials say 2028 could become more dangerous if the DPP wins a fourth consecutive term, particularly if Lai Ching-te is reelected.
- Military delays
- China’s anti-corruption campaign has affected military readiness and led to investigations and expulsions.
- US support
- The United States is Taiwan’s most important international backer and weapons supplier, despite having no formal diplomatic ties.
- Arms package
- Donald Trump has held off on approving a reported $14 billion arms package, calling it a negotiating chip.
Quotes
Anonymous US official
A current US official familiar with US assessments of China and Taiwan
“There are way too many pieces that aren't quite in place yet for what would be the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy”
telegraphindia.com
NDTV
“If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty”
telegraphindia.com
NDTV
Sources
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