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Five Competitive House Races Could Decide Congress Control
The House of Representatives is one part of the US Congress.
Republicans currently have a small advantage there.
Democrats need to win four more seats than they lose to take control.
Five races in Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine could help decide who gets that control.
Some districts have changed because of new boundaries, and others have been very close in past elections.
In Iowa, one race was decided by only 799 votes in 2024.
Maine’s race is open because its current representative is retiring.
The winners of these races could affect who leads the House for the next two years.
Republicans hold a 219-214 House majority, with two seats vacant; Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.
Texas’ 34th became more Republican-leaning after redistricting, but Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzalez remains competitive against Eric Flores.
In Iowa’s 3rd, Republican Zach Nunn faces Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott; the candidates have raised more than $10 million combined.
Iowa’s 1st is a rematch between Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Christina Bohannan, after Miller-Meeks won by 799 votes in 2024.
Ohio’s 9th and Maine’s 2nd are also key contests: Marcy Kaptur faces Derek Merrin, while Democrat Matthew Dunlap and Republican Paul LePage contest an open seat.
- Who
- Candidates in five competitive House races: Vicente Gonzalez and Eric Flores; Zach Nunn and Sarah Trone Garriott; Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Christina Bohannan; Marcy Kaptur and Derek Merrin; Matthew Dunlap and Paul LePage.
- What
- The races could help determine which party controls the US House after the midterm elections.
- Where
- Texas’ 34th District; Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Districts; Ohio’s 9th District; and Maine’s 2nd District.
- When
- November 3, 2026.
- Why
- Republicans have a narrow House majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.
Democratic candidates
Republican candidates
Texas’ 34th District
Democratic candidates
Vicente Gonzalez is seeking another term and remains competitive despite the district’s more Republican-leaning boundaries.
Republican candidates
Eric Flores is challenging Gonzalez in a district estimated to have been carried by Donald Trump by about 10 points in 2024.
Iowa’s 3rd District
Democratic candidates
Sarah Trone Garriott is challenging incumbent Zach Nunn in a repeatedly competitive district.
Republican candidates
Nunn is defending the seat after winning re-election with 51.8% in 2024.
Iowa’s 1st District
Democratic candidates
Christina Bohannan is seeking to unseat Miller-Meeks, whom she narrowly lost to in 2024.
Republican candidates
Miller-Meeks is seeking another term after winning the 2024 contest by 799 votes.
Ohio’s 9th District
Democratic candidates
Marcy Kaptur is seeking to retain a district that became more Republican-leaning after redistricting.
Republican candidates
Derek Merrin is seeking to flip the seat for Republicans.
Maine’s 2nd District
Democratic candidates
Matthew Dunlap is competing for the open seat after Democratic Representative Jared Golden announced his retirement.
Republican candidates
Paul LePage is running for Republicans in a district the party views as a major pickup opportunity.
Key facts
- Current House balance
- Republicans 219, Democrats 214; two seats are vacant.
- Democratic target
- A net gain of four seats would give Democrats a House majority.
- Election date
- November 3, 2026.
- Texas 34th
- Redrawn boundaries made the district more Republican-leaning; Donald Trump was estimated to have carried it by about 10 points in 2024.
- Iowa 3rd
- Zach Nunn won re-election in 2024 with 51.8% of the vote; the two leading candidates have raised more than $10 million combined.
- Iowa 1st
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks beat Christina Bohannan by 799 votes in 2024 after a recount.
- Maine 2nd
- Jared Golden is retiring; Trump carried the district in 2024, while Golden won it by less than one percentage point.
Sources
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