3 days ago
Young Adults Drive Billions in Kalshi Prediction Market Trading
Kalshi is a website where people trade contracts about what might happen in sports, elections, weather, and other events.
People aged 18 to 21 are generally too young to enter most American casinos or sportsbooks.
However, federal rules usually allow them to use prediction markets at age 18.
CNN estimated that this age group traded $5.4 billion on Kalshi this year.
About $3.9 billion of that involved sports and parlays.
Critics worry that these markets let young adults gamble through their phones and may lead to harmful trading.
Kalshi says it uses tools such as deposit limits and warnings for risky behavior.
Supporters say the platforms are financial exchanges, similar to places where adults can trade stocks.
The argument has led to calls for a minimum trading age of 21 and an ongoing legal fight over regulation.
CNN estimates people aged 18 to 21 traded $5.4 billion on Kalshi this year.
Sports and parlays made up about 80% of Kalshi’s overall volume, including an estimated $3.9 billion from 18- to 21-year-olds.
Kalshi users aged 18 to 21 account for 3.14% of the platform’s total trading volume, according to the company.
Kalshi operates under federal financial-market rules that generally allow participation at age 18, unlike most state-regulated sportsbooks requiring customers to be 21.
The American Gaming Association and other critics call sports contracts disguised gambling, while supporters describe prediction markets as financial exchanges.
- Who
- People aged 18 to 21, Kalshi, regulators, lawmakers, consumer advocates, addiction specialists, and the casino industry.
- What
- Young adults have traded billions of dollars on Kalshi as prediction markets rapidly expand, intensifying debate over whether sports contracts are financial products or gambling.
- Where
- The United States.
- When
- This year; the article does not specify a calendar year.
- Why
- Prediction markets generally permit participation at 18 under federal financial-market rules, while most state-regulated casinos and sportsbooks require customers to be 21.
Critics and gambling-industry opponents
Prediction-market supporters
How sports contracts should be classified
Critics and gambling-industry opponents
The American Gaming Association argues that sports contracts function as unlicensed sportsbooks and provide a backdoor to sports betting in places where the legal age is 21.
Prediction-market supporters
Supporters say prediction markets are financial exchanges rather than traditional gambling operators, and compare them with brokerage accounts that Americans can open at 18.
Risks for young adults
Critics and gambling-industry opponents
Lawmakers, consumer advocates, and addiction specialists warn that the lower federal age may expose younger adults to financial losses and potentially harmful trading behavior.
Prediction-market supporters
Kalshi points to safeguards including deposit limits and warnings for accounts showing patterns associated with risky behavior.
Appropriate minimum age
Critics and gambling-industry opponents
Critics have prompted calls for a 21-or-older trading age, arguing that sports-focused markets resemble age-restricted betting.
Prediction-market supporters
Federal rules generally allow participation from age 18, and some operators have chosen different policies voluntarily; Fanatics requires users to be at least 21.
Key facts
- Estimated 18–21 trading
- $5.4 billion on Kalshi this year, according to CNN’s analysis.
- Sports and parlays
- Approximately $3.9 billion of the age group’s estimated trading involved these categories.
- Kalshi overall volume
- More than $173 billion so far this year, based on publicly available figures from Paradigm.
- Young users’ share
- Kalshi says users aged 18 to 21 represent 3.14% of overall trading volume.
- Market position
- Financial analysts estimated Kalshi controlled about 90% of United States prediction-market volume earlier this year.
- Federal regulator
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees prediction markets under the current federal framework.
- Problem-gambling contribution
- Kalshi has contributed $2 million to the National Council for Problem Gambling.
Quotes
Jonathan Michaels
Gaming industry consulting firm executive
“Most parents and grandparents don’t realize that the ‘prediction markets’ are offering a backdoor into sports-betting in jurisdictions where the legal betting age is 21. This means their freshman son or daughter is prohibited from entering legal sportsbooks, but now they can just pull out their phone and use Kalshi to bet on football.”
wionews.com
“Normally you’d have a big summer lull, but the World Cup changed that completely. Prediction markets will also see record numbers this fall with the football season, and that’ll certainly trickle down into college-age students.”
wionews.com
Sources
Related news
Kalshi Permanently Bans George Santos Over Market Manipulation
Former White House Teleprompter Operator Fined Over Trump Speech Bets
Research Flags 152 Polymarket Wallets Over Possible Military Insider Trading
Trade.xyz Tests 24/7 Blockchain Markets With $500 Billion Volume
SEBI Study Finds Younger Derivatives Traders Face Higher Losses
Casinos Reinvent Real-World Experiences to Attract Gen Z Gamblers
Survey: 70% of Young Americans Distrust AI's Biggest Names
